BLAST Bounty 2026

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.93

Advertised RTP

80.33%

EV $0.75 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d

80.59%

427 openings, odds method

Variance

0.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

36.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

79.29%±8.53280 openings

30 days

80.59%±6.94427 openings

since tracking started

80.59%±6.94427 openings

70.0%79.3%88.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	280	79.29%±8.53	−0.2σ	odds
30d	427	80.59%±6.94	+0.1σ	odds
All	427	80.59%±6.94	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 427 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 9,598	$27.66	0.4%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Night (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 9,105	$20.82	0.3%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 8,760	$18.43	0.3%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 8,456	$16.93	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 7,217	$13.19	0.2%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 6,771	$12.28	0.2%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 6,613	$11.99	0.2%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 4,563	$9.04	0.3%	0	0.1	—
P90 \| Deathgaze (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,637	$5.54	0.5%	1	0.3	—
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 1,580	$5.46	0.5%	0	0.3	—
Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 848	$4.29	0.7%	1	0.5	—
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 533	$3.62	0.9%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 178	$2.42	1.8%	1	2.4	0.42×
Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 159	$2.32	2.0%	1	2.7	0.37×
MAC-10 \| Malachite (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 79	$1.78	3.0%	7	5.4	1.29×
SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 25	$1.09	5.8%	10	16.9	0.59×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 25	$1.08	5.9%	29	17.3	1.68×
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 24	$1.07	5.9%	17	17.7	0.96×
AUG \| Aristocrat (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 24	$1.07	5.9%	17	17.6	0.96×
P90 \| Module (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 19	$0.95	6.6%	13	22.2	0.58×
Charm \| Lil' Teacupcharm · #8847ff	1 in 19	$0.95	6.6%	24	22.1	1.09×
Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 15	$0.80	7.4%	29	29.4	0.99×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 13	$0.75	7.6%	29	32.2	0.90×
UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	10.0%	$0.59	7.9%	37	42.9	0.86×
Charm \| Bomb Tagcharm · Mythical	10.0%	$0.59	7.9%	56	42.8	1.31×
SG 553 \| Darkwing (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	11.1%	$0.52	7.7%	49	47.4	1.03×
P90 \| Wave Breaker (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	12.2%	$0.43	7.1%	0	52.0	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	12.6%	$0.37	6.2%	43	53.6	0.80×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SG 553 | Darkwing (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalLaph1$0.93$0.520.56x5d

SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffPapatinho69$0.93$0.900.97x5d

Charm | Bomb Tagcharm · MythicalPapatinho69$0.93$0.600.65x5d

SG 553 | Darkwing (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalPapatinho69$0.93$0.520.56x5d

Charm | Lil' Teacupcharm · #8847ffPapatinho69$0.93$1.021.10x5d

Tec-9 | Avalanche (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedPapatinho69$0.93$1.081.16x5d

Charm | Bomb Tagcharm · Mythicalmulashka228$0.93$0.600.65x5d

Charm | Bomb Tagcharm · MythicalRubz$0.93$0.590.63x5d

Five-SeveN | Hybridweapon · violetRubz$0.93$0.400.43x5d

Charm | Bomb Tagcharm · MythicalMaHTuKoPa$0.93$0.590.63x5d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 80.33%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.93	80.33%	28
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.93	80.28%	28
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0.93	79.92%	28
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0.93	80.01%	28
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.93	80.04%	28
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.93	80.04%	28
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$0.93	80.12%	28
4 Nov, 08:09 UTC	$0.93	80.09%	28
4 Nov, 07:05 UTC	$0.93	80.17%	28
4 Nov, 05:18 UTC	$0.93	80.25%	28
3 Nov, 23:08 UTC	$0.93	80.10%	28
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$0.93	80.38%	28
3 Nov, 15:56 UTC	$0.93	80.26%	28
3 Nov, 10:09 UTC	$0.93	80.25%	28
3 Nov, 09:10 UTC	$0.93	80.27%	28
3 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$0.93	80.54%	28
3 Nov, 07:37 UTC	$0.93	80.65%	28
3 Nov, 05:04 UTC	$0.93	80.58%	28
3 Nov, 04:13 UTC	$0.93	80.60%	28
3 Nov, 02:07 UTC	$0.93	80.60%	28
3 Nov, 02:01 UTC	$0.93	80.68%	28
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$0.93	80.58%	28

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedred 0.0%industrial 0.0%classified 0.9%Legendary 0.2%uncommon 0.1%Mythical 29.3%#8847ff 22.6%violet 23.5%restricted 18.3%mil spec 5.2%best hit —