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Operation Bravo Case

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price
$13.99
Advertised RTP
73.88%
EV $10.34 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.84%
475 openings, odds method
Variance
2.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
32.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
67.8%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
42 openings · below min
7 days
90.42%±16.08414 openings
30 days
90.84%±15.02475 openings
since tracking started
90.84%±15.02475 openings
37.0%87.5%138.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 74.63% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (75.81% – 105.86%, 475 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h4287.60%±49.9—odds
7d41490.42%±16.1+1.9σodds
30d47590.84%±15.0+2.1σodds
All47590.84%±15.0+2.1σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 482 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 9,986$1,8851.8%00.0—
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 9,690$6670.7%00.0—
★ Karambit | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 9,470$5530.6%00.1—
★ Bayonet | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 6,830$2730.4%00.1—
Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 3,453$1710.5%00.1—
AWP | Graphite (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 1,620$1220.7%00.3—
P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 786$92.491.1%00.6—
P90 | Emerald Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 675$87.481.3%00.7—
M4A1-S | Bright Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 30$28.579.1%1315.80.82×
MAC-10 | Graven (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 13$20.1415.0%6737.01.81×
M4A4 | Zirka (Field-Tested)weapon · violet10.0%$17.8217.3%5648.31.16×
USP-S | Overgrowth (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted10.8%$17.2217.9%8651.91.66×
Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec34.2%$5.5318.3%111165.10.67×
Nova | Tempest (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec33.6%$4.7315.4%58161.90.36×
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
USP-S | Overgrowth (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedDon Bobrini$13.99$17.091.22x
MAC-10 | Graven (Field-Tested)weapon · violettohui$13.99$19.911.42x
MAC-10 | Graven (Field-Tested)weapon · violettohui$13.99$19.911.42x
Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spectohui$13.99$5.160.37x
Nova | Tempest (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spectohui$13.99$4.670.33x
USP-S | Overgrowth (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedRico$13.99$16.681.19x
M4A1-S | Bright Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedSEvER$13.99$28.612.05x
MAC-10 | Graven (Field-Tested)weapon · violetSEvER$13.99$20.101.44x
Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specSEvER$13.99$5.540.40x
MAC-10 | Graven (Field-Tested)weapon · violetSEvER$13.99$20.101.44x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 73.88%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC$13.9973.88%14
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC$13.9973.69%14
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC$13.9973.69%15
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC$13.9973.99%15
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC$13.9974.30%15
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC$13.9974.30%14
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC$13.9974.29%14
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC$13.9974.34%14
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC$13.9974.41%15
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC$13.9974.84%15
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$13.9974.81%15
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC$13.9974.79%15
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC$13.9974.82%14
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC$13.9974.82%14
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC$13.9974.81%14
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC$13.9974.84%14
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC$13.9974.82%14
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC$13.9974.79%13
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC$13.9974.83%13
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC$13.9974.83%13
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC$13.9974.76%13
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC$13.9974.85%13
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC$13.9975.24%13
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC$13.9975.23%14
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC$13.9975.12%13
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC$13.9974.83%13
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC$13.9974.94%13
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC$13.9974.93%13
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$13.9974.91%13
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC$13.9974.89%13
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%classified 0.3%restricted 14.0%violet 17.7%mil spec 67.8%best hit —