BRDGamer

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$13.99

Advertised RTP

73.66%

EV $10.30 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d

75.07%

952 openings, odds method

Variance

0.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

30.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

75.91%±12.71129 openings

7 days

75.35%±5.01831 openings

30 days

75.07%±4.69952 openings

since tracking started

75.07%±4.69952 openings

62.5%76.0%89.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	129	75.91%±12.7	+0.3σ	odds
7d	831	75.35%±5.01	+0.4σ	odds
30d	952	75.07%±4.69	+0.3σ	odds
All	952	75.07%±4.69	+0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 952 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 199,564	$2,970	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 167,669	$667	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 16,071	$171	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Guerrilla (Field-Tested)gloves · gold	1 in 10,359	$146	0.1%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 4,305	$107	0.2%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,627	$101	0.3%	0	0.3	—
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,388	$98.94	0.3%	2	0.3	—
AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,912	$93.93	0.3%	0	0.3	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Convoy (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,028	$82.99	0.4%	0	0.5	—
★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,737	$78.69	0.4%	0	0.5	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,547	$75.64	0.5%	2	0.6	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 825	$60.93	0.7%	0	1.2	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 276	$41.54	1.5%	2	3.4	0.58×
MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 147	$33.08	2.2%	8	6.5	1.24×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 140	$32.43	2.3%	7	6.8	1.03×
AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 94	$27.87	2.9%	14	10.2	1.38×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 62	$23.73	3.7%	22	15.3	1.44×
USP-S \| Caiman (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 58	$23.00	3.9%	16	16.5	0.97×
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 39	$19.36	4.9%	30	24.7	1.21×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 28	$16.58	5.8%	26	34.4	0.76×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 24	$15.56	6.2%	41	39.0	1.05×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 16	$11.97	7.5%	62	61.4	1.01×
SSG 08 \| Detour (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 14	$11.37	7.7%	27	66.1	0.41×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 14	$11.22	7.7%	67	67.3	1.00×
Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$10.40	7.9%	59	74.2	0.80×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 11	$8.77	7.9%	59	88.6	0.67×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	11.4%	$5.74	6.3%	118	108.2	1.09×
MP9 \| Rose Iron (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	11.4%	$5.60	6.2%	116	108.4	1.07×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	11.4%	$5.46	6.0%	107	108.5	0.99×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	11.4%	$5.45	6.0%	100	108.5	0.92×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP7 | Smoking Kills (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommonMarinette$13.99$5.370.38x15m

AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6RK$13.99$5.740.41x31m

USP-S | Caiman (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedSAKURA$13.99$23.811.70x39m

AK-47 | The Outsiders (Field-Tested)weapon · rare🩶L,E,K,A🩶$13.99$5.470.39x1h

SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested)weapon · classified🩶L,E,K,A🩶$13.99$8.960.64x1h

M4A4 | Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified🩶L,E,K,A🩶$13.99$11.790.84x1h

Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified🩶L,E,K,A🩶$13.99$16.571.18x1h

MP9 | Rose Iron (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedMoek$13.99$5.680.41x2h

M4A4 | Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedMoek$13.99$11.660.83x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 73.66%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$13.99	73.66%	30
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$13.99	73.48%	30
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$13.99	73.46%	30
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$13.99	73.75%	30
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$13.99	74.08%	30
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$13.99	74.08%	30
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$13.99	74.06%	30
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$13.99	74.13%	30
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$13.99	74.19%	30
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$13.99	74.61%	29
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$13.99	74.58%	29
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$13.99	74.57%	29
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$13.99	74.60%	30
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$13.99	74.60%	30
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$13.99	74.60%	30
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$13.99	74.61%	30
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$13.99	74.58%	30
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$13.99	74.59%	30
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$13.99	74.60%	30
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$13.99	74.60%	30
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$13.99	74.54%	30
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$13.99	74.65%	30
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$13.99	74.99%	30
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$13.99	75.00%	31
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$13.99	74.90%	30
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$13.99	74.61%	31
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$13.99	74.70%	30
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$13.99	74.68%	30
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$13.99	74.70%	30
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$13.99	74.68%	30

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.7%gold 0.0%classified 28.9%extraordinary 0.0%mil spec 7.6%Ancient 0.7%violet 1.6%pink 7.1%restricted 19.2%#d32ee6 11.4%uncommon 11.4%rare 11.4%best hit —