Бабл ти

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$6.09

Advertised RTP

76.30%

EV $4.65 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d

77.12%

520 openings, odds method

Variance

0.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

36.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

89.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

65 openings · below min

7 days

77.36%±7.42439 openings

30 days

77.12%±6.83520 openings

since tracking started

77.12%±6.83520 openings

55.0%74.5%94.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	65	74.38%±18.7	—	odds
7d	439	77.36%±7.42	+0.1σ	odds
30d	520	77.12%±6.83	−0.0σ	odds
All	520	77.12%±6.83	−0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 522 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Nomad Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 9,785	$208	0.5%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 9,618	$171	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 9,506	$156	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 8,798	$113	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 8,081	$93.93	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 7,597	$85.35	0.2%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 7,090	$78.23	0.2%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,643	$63.34	0.2%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,356	$60.93	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 3,696	$48.57	0.3%	1	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,534	$32.71	0.5%	1	0.3	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,185	$29.56	0.5%	0	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 370	$19.25	1.1%	1	1.4	0.71×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 293	$17.70	1.3%	1	1.8	0.56×
P250 \| Splash (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$15.41	1.7%	1	2.6	0.38×
AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Field-Tested)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 144	$13.69	2.0%	5	3.6	1.38×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 118	$12.70	2.3%	10	4.4	2.25×
P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 106	$12.23	2.5%	6	4.9	1.22×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 42	$8.54	4.4%	13	12.4	1.05×
MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 22	$6.49	6.3%	27	23.5	1.15×
XM1014 \| Incinegator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$5.67	7.2%	35	30.8	1.13×
MP9 \| Rose Iron (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$5.60	7.3%	27	31.6	0.85×
P250 \| Kintsugi (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 15	$5.38	7.6%	38	34.1	1.11×
FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 14	$5.13	7.9%	46	37.3	1.23×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 12	$4.63	8.5%	40	44.4	0.90×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	11.6%	$3.70	9.3%	43	60.8	0.71×
AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	12.1%	$3.58	9.3%	64	63.2	1.01×
FAMAS \| Valence (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	15.2%	$2.73	8.9%	69	79.5	0.87×
MAC-10 \| Heat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	16.1%	$2.44	8.4%	75	83.9	0.89×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Searing Rage (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkf1rya$6.09$4.290.70x42s

FAMAS | Valence (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedMashono4ka♿$6.09$2.740.45x8m

P250 | Kintsugi (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkMashono4ka♿$6.09$5.360.88x9m

AK-47 | Searing Rage (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkMashono4ka♿$6.09$4.290.70x9m

AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedMashono4ka♿$6.09$3.540.58x10m

XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedгыча$6.09$5.680.93x33m

AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified-𝓪𝓵𝔃𝓲$6.09$3.540.58x54m

AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedMashono4ka♿$6.09$3.530.58x1h

AK-47 | Searing Rage (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkMashono4ka♿$6.09$4.290.70x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.30%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$6.09	76.30%	29
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$6.09	76.09%	29
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$6.09	76.07%	29
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$6.09	76.37%	30
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$6.09	76.70%	30
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$6.09	76.71%	30
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$6.09	76.68%	30
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$6.09	76.75%	29
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$6.09	76.80%	29
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$6.09	77.22%	30
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$6.09	77.23%	30
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$6.09	77.22%	30
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$6.09	77.25%	29
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$6.09	77.27%	30
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$6.09	77.26%	29
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$6.09	77.27%	30
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$6.09	77.22%	29
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$6.09	77.22%	29
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$6.09	77.25%	29
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$6.09	77.28%	29
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$6.09	77.21%	30
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$6.09	77.32%	29
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$6.09	77.67%	29
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$6.09	77.65%	29
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$6.09	77.58%	29
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$6.09	77.29%	29
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$6.09	77.35%	29
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$6.09	77.34%	29
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$6.09	77.38%	29
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$6.09	77.33%	29

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedgold 0.0%covert 0.2%extraordinary 0.0%classified 38.4%red 0.0%rare 0.0%restricted 26.3%#eb4b4b 0.7%pink 15.9%#d32ee6 2.4%#8847ff 16.1%best hit —