Bugatti Tourbillon

A case on csgo.net (Ultra), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$1,399.00

Advertised RTP

70.73%

EV $989.55 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

75.03%

301 openings, odds method

Variance

0.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

32.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

14 openings · below min

7 days

73.80%±5.96262 openings

30 days

75.03%±5.57301 openings

since tracking started

75.03%±5.57301 openings

40.0%64.8%89.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	14	64.87%±24.1	—	odds
7d	262	73.80%±5.96	+0.7σ	odds
30d	301	75.03%±5.57	+1.2σ	odds
All	301	75.03%±5.57	+1.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 301 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 928	$7,581	0.8%	1	0.3	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 686	$6,771	1.0%	0	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband	1 in 231	$4,541	2.0%	2	1.3	1.54×
M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 97	$3,271	3.4%	11	3.1	3.55×
AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 76	$2,970	3.9%	5	4.0	1.26×
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 32	$2,024	6.5%	3	9.5	0.32×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 31	$1,996	6.6%	11	9.8	1.12×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 13	$1,151	9.0%	20	23.4	0.86×
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 13	$1,149	9.0%	25	23.4	1.07×
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 13	$1,149	9.0%	2	23.4	0.09×
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 12	$1,074	9.0%	21	25.0	0.84×
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 11	$1,016	9.0%	20	26.3	0.76×
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	10.1%	$784	8.0%	33	30.4	1.09×
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	10.3%	$727	7.6%	35	31.0	1.13×
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	10.3%	$563	5.8%	33	30.9	1.07×
M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 10	$478	4.7%	30	29.5	1.02×
★ Karambit \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 10	$467	4.6%	7	29.2	0.24×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covertZipper$1,399$7,7025.51x7d

AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertrina$1,399$4,9393.53x4d

AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertGET25$1,399$4,8253.45x4d

M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contrabandPoromedic$1,399$4,4843.21x7d

M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contrabandIGROGAME$1,399$4,3593.12x6d

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Field-Tested)gloves · legendaryIGROGAME$1,399$3,4022.43x6d

AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertIGROGAME$1,399$3,2682.34x6d

AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertDaniDropper$1,399$2,8032.00x7d

M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classifiedZipper$1,399$2,7922.00x4d

M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classifiedGET25$1,399$2,7891.99x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertMPC TURN OFF CAPS$1,399$8850.63x9h

★ Karambit | Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · covertMPC TURN OFF CAPS$1,399$4770.34x9h

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classifiedMPC TURN OFF CAPS$1,399$1,1910.85x9h

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rareMPC TURN OFF CAPS$1,399$5630.40x10h

M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classifiedMPC TURN OFF CAPS$1,399$4660.33x10h

M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedMPC TURN OFF CAPS$1,399$1,0870.78x10h

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classifiedMPC TURN OFF CAPS$1,399$1,1910.85x10h

AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covertMPC TURN OFF CAPS$1,399$1,1470.82x10h

★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covertMPC TURN OFF CAPS$1,399$1,1520.82x10h

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classifiedpup$1,399$1,1920.85x16h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 70.73%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$1,399	70.73%	17
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$1,399	70.57%	17
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$1,399	70.55%	17
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$1,399	70.83%	16
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$1,399	71.14%	17
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$1,399	71.14%	17
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$1,399	71.13%	17
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$1,399	71.19%	17
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$1,399	71.25%	17
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$1,399	71.65%	17
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$1,399	71.62%	17
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$1,399	71.61%	17
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$1,399	71.64%	17
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$1,399	71.64%	17
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$1,399	71.64%	17
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$1,399	71.65%	17
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$1,399	71.62%	17
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$1,399	71.63%	17
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$1,399	71.64%	17
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$1,399	71.64%	17
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$1,399	71.58%	17
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$1,399	71.69%	17
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$1,399	72.02%	16
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$1,399	72.03%	16
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$1,399	71.94%	16
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$1,399	71.65%	16
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$1,399	71.74%	17
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$1,399	71.73%	17
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$1,399	71.74%	17
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$1,399	71.71%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 35.5%contraband 0.4%classified 26.9%extraordinary 13.5%sunny 13.4%rare 10.3%best hit $7,702 (5.51x)