Case PANDAO

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$4.09

Advertised RTP

75.60%

EV $3.09 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d

82.25%

1,498 openings, odds method

Variance

0.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

32.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

74.97%±8.66180 openings

7 days

81.68%±3.391,320 openings

30 days

82.25%±3.191,498 openings

since tracking started

82.25%±3.191,498 openings

65.5%75.8%86.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 76.51% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (79.06% – 85.43%, 1,498 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	180	74.97%±8.66	−0.1σ	odds
7d	1,320	81.68%±3.39	+3.0σ	odds
30d	1,498	82.25%±3.19	+3.5σ	odds
All	1,498	82.25%±3.19	+3.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,498 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 49,645	$93.59	0.1%	0	0.0	—
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 29,873	$75.79	0.1%	1	0.1	—
M4A4 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 28,113	$74.01	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 20,533	$65.68	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 9,180	$49.13	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Duct Tape (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 5,751	$41.74	0.2%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,670	$41.54	0.2%	1	0.3	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,022	$39.83	0.3%	0	0.3	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 4,394	$38.04	0.3%	1	0.3	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,300	$30.45	0.4%	0	0.7	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,109	$29.56	0.5%	0	0.7	—
AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,150	$24.00	0.7%	3	1.3	2.30×
P90 \| Death Grip (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 452	$17.36	1.2%	4	3.3	1.21×
P2000 \| Woodsman (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 327	$15.47	1.5%	7	4.6	1.53×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 163	$12.02	2.4%	12	9.2	1.31×
SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 151	$11.69	2.5%	11	9.9	1.11×
CZ75-Auto \| Tread Plate (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 41	$6.92	5.4%	43	36.4	1.18×
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 27	$5.68	6.7%	73	54.8	1.33×
MAC-10 \| Tatter (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 26	$5.54	6.9%	2	57.3	0.03×
Nova \| Rising Skull (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 21	$4.90	7.6%	106	71.5	1.48×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 13	$3.37	8.6%	120	118.1	1.02×
P90 \| Desert Warfare (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 12	$3.29	8.6%	22	120.7	0.18×
Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$2.95	8.4%	33	131.8	0.25×
Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 11	$2.61	8.0%	52	141.7	0.37×
Five-SeveN \| Kami (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 10	$2.42	7.6%	18	146.0	0.12×
AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	10.1%	$1.97	6.4%	207	150.9	1.37×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 10	$1.75	5.6%	93	149.4	0.62×
MP7 \| Special Delivery (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 10	$1.53	4.8%	10	144.2	0.07×
AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 10	$1.51	4.7%	191	143.8	1.33×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedTrace$4.09$3.400.83x2m

CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ffЖулик$4.09$6.671.63x33m

Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Field-Tested)weapon · LegendaryHyKAC$4.09$2.610.64x33m

MP7 | Special Delivery (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedNS | snake$4.09$1.510.37x46m

Five-SeveN | Kami (Field-Tested)weapon · RareDžega$4.09$2.510.61x57m

Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedJimmy Dristall$4.09$2.940.72x59m

MP7 | Special Delivery (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedТолкуйдаа$4.09$1.530.37x1h

MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · LegendaryТолкуйдаа$4.09$5.691.39x1h

Nova | Rising Skull (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedТолкуйдаа$4.09$4.941.21x1h

MAC-10 | Tatter (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ffТолкуйдаа$4.09$6.611.62x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.60%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$4.09	75.60%	29
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$4.09	75.43%	29
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$4.09	75.45%	28
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$4.09	75.78%	28
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$4.09	76.04%	28
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$4.09	76.05%	28
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$4.09	76.05%	28
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$4.09	76.08%	28
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$4.09	76.21%	28
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$4.09	76.63%	28
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$4.09	76.60%	28
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$4.09	76.57%	28
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$4.09	76.60%	28
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$4.09	76.57%	28
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$4.09	76.58%	28
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$4.09	76.61%	28
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$4.09	76.56%	28
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$4.09	76.60%	28
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$4.09	76.60%	28
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$4.09	76.60%	28
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$4.09	76.53%	29
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$4.09	76.65%	28
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$4.09	77.01%	28
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$4.09	77.00%	28
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$4.09	76.93%	28
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$4.09	76.61%	29
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$4.09	76.71%	28
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$4.09	76.73%	29
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$4.09	76.67%	28
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$4.09	76.70%	28

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%#eb4b4b 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%covert knife 0.0%classified 9.2%restricted 33.0%violet 0.3%#8847ff 6.3%Legendary 13.1%Rare 27.8%Mythical 10.1%best hit —