Case patrol

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$7.49

Advertised RTP

76.02%

EV $5.69 from 48 items

Observed RTP, 30d

73.65%

1,425 openings, odds method

Variance

0.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

28.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

68.64%±11.87130 openings

7 days

74.05%±3.891,230 openings

30 days

73.65%±3.621,425 openings

since tracking started

73.65%±3.621,425 openings

56.0%68.5%81.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	130	68.64%±11.9	−1.2σ	odds
7d	1,230	74.05%±3.89	−1.3σ	odds
30d	1,425	73.65%±3.62	−1.7σ	odds
All	1,425	73.65%±3.62	−1.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values48 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,425 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 183,399	$464	0.0%	0	0.0	—
MP9 \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 102,534	$212	0.0%	0	0.0	—
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100,041	$208	0.0%	0	0.0	—
SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 78,492	$180	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Charred (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 73,999	$174	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 59,602	$156	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 42,468	$134	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 36,885	$127	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 36,069	$126	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 32,366	$120	0.1%	0	0.0	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 28,172	$114	0.1%	1	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 24,027	$107	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 22,778	$105	0.1%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 16,561	$93.16	0.1%	0	0.1	—
P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 7,638	$70.73	0.2%	0	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 6,779	$67.85	0.2%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,871	$55.90	0.3%	0	0.4	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · rare	1 in 3,740	$55.24	0.3%	0	0.4	—
★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · Covert	1 in 2,647	$49.06	0.3%	0	0.5	—
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,003	$44.58	0.4%	0	0.7	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Buckshot (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,437	$39.78	0.5%	1	1.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,371	$39.13	0.5%	0	1.0	0.00×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 762	$31.94	0.7%	0	1.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 754	$31.82	0.7%	0	1.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 643	$30.12	0.8%	1	2.2	0.45×
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 621	$29.76	0.8%	0	2.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 554	$28.58	0.9%	0	2.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 544	$28.41	0.9%	4	2.6	1.53×
FAMAS \| Meltdown (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 354	$24.40	1.2%	5	4.0	1.24×
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 189	$19.46	1.8%	5	7.5	0.66×
Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 188	$19.43	1.8%	2	7.6	0.26×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 57	$12.20	3.7%	27	24.8	1.09×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 55	$11.98	3.8%	16	25.9	0.62×
MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 54	$11.92	3.8%	34	26.2	1.30×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 54	$11.87	3.9%	22	26.5	0.83×
SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 51	$11.56	4.0%	11	28.1	0.39×
P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 35	$9.71	4.9%	38	41.1	0.92×
P90 \| Shapewood (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 32	$9.30	5.1%	47	44.8	1.05×
FAMAS \| Styx (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 28	$8.71	5.5%	50	51.0	0.98×
AUG \| Momentum (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 14	$5.48	6.8%	93	101.4	0.92×
UMP-45 \| Momentum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 12	$4.73	6.7%	30	115.5	0.26×
MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 12	$4.56	6.7%	141	118.5	1.19×
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 11	$4.22	6.5%	124	124.1	1.00×
AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 11	$3.85	6.1%	153	129.3	1.18×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 11	$3.46	5.7%	124	133.0	0.93×
AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 11	$3.00	5.0%	173	134.0	1.29×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$2.70	4.4%	105	132.4	0.79×
Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$2.58	4.2%	5	130.9	0.04×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Mount Fuji (Field-Tested)weapon · violetpay$7.49$4.570.61x1h

AK-47 | Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedRaf无为$7.49$2.700.36x1h

P90 | Shapewood (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedLEGBA$7.49$9.271.24x1h

AWP | Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink02Xupo$7.49$3.000.40x1h

AUG | Momentum (Field-Tested)weapon · classified02Xupo$7.49$5.480.73x1h

Galil AR | Stone Cold (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedLEGBA$7.49$2.580.34x2h

UMP-45 | Momentum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifieddatss$7.49$4.700.63x2h

AK-47 | Slate (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalLEGBA$7.49$3.870.52x2h

UMP-45 | Momentum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedLEGBA$7.49$4.700.63x2h

MP9 | Airlock (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6LEGBA$7.49$11.931.59x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.02%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC	$7.49	76.02%	48
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$7.49	75.81%	47
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$7.49	75.66%	48
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$7.49	75.65%	47
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$7.49	75.91%	47
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$7.49	76.26%	47
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$7.49	76.29%	47
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$7.49	76.27%	47
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$7.49	76.32%	47
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$7.49	76.37%	47
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$7.49	76.81%	47
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$7.49	76.79%	47
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$7.49	76.74%	47
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$7.49	76.78%	46
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$7.49	76.80%	47
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$7.49	76.80%	47
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$7.49	76.80%	47
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$7.49	76.79%	47
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$7.49	76.80%	47
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$7.49	76.81%	47
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$7.49	76.81%	47
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$7.49	76.73%	47
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$7.49	76.84%	47
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$7.49	77.20%	47
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$7.49	77.25%	46
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$7.49	77.10%	47
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$7.49	76.82%	47
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$7.49	76.92%	46
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$7.49	76.88%	46
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$7.49	76.88%	47

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.7%mil spec 0.5%Classified 0.0%extraordinary 0.1%covert knife 0.0%classified 37.7%red 0.0%rare 0.0%Covert 0.0%Ancient 0.3%restricted 18.7%Legendary 9.9%#d32ee6 1.8%violet 11.9%Mythical 9.1%pink 9.4%best hit —