Chop Shop

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$2.69

Advertised RTP

76.58%

EV $2.06 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d

11.37%

43 openings, odds method

Variance

1.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

44.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

93.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

29 openings · below min

7 days

39 openings · below min

30 days

43 openings · below min

since tracking started

43 openings · below min

-0.5%38.5%77.5%

Small sample. 43 openings and 17.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	29	10.92%±47.5	—	odds
7d	39	11.10%±41.1	—	odds
30d	43	11.37%±39.2	—	odds
All	43	11.37%±39.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 43 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 199,651	$1,149	0.3%	0	0.0	—
Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 179,821	$287	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 148,595	$197	0.1%	0	0.0	—
SG 553 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 138,966	$182	0.1%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 2,759	$33.19	0.6%	0	0.0	—
MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,733	$33.08	0.6%	0	0.0	—
MP7 \| Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 2,003	$29.76	0.7%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,752	$28.43	0.8%	0	0.0	—
CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,198	$24.98	1.0%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Night (Field-Tested)weapon · light blue	1 in 151	$12.17	3.9%	0	0.3	—
Galil AR \| Urban Rubble (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 41	$7.48	8.8%	0	1.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Para Green (Field-Tested)weapon · 2	1 in 29	$6.43	10.9%	0	1.5	0.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear)weapon · Common	18.4%	$2.03	18.2%	0	7.9	0.00×
SCAR-20 \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	18.7%	$1.93	17.5%	0	8.1	0.00×
MAG-7 \| Seabird (Well-Worn)weapon · #B0C3D9	18.8%	$1.88	17.2%	0	8.1	0.00×
M249 \| Impact Drill (Well-Worn)weapon · Consumer Grade	19.0%	$1.80	16.6%	0	8.2	0.00×
Galil AR \| Black Sand (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 14	$0.34	1.2%	14	3.0	4.65×
P250 \| Verdigris (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 18	$0.28	0.8%	18	2.4	7.43×
MP9 \| Modest Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 18	$0.27	0.7%	6	2.4	2.53×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P250 | Verdigris (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specGarfield$2.69$0.280.10x17h

Galil AR | Black Sand (Well-Worn)weapon · milspecGarfield$2.69$0.350.13x17h

P250 | Verdigris (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specGarfield$2.69$0.280.10x17h

Galil AR | Black Sand (Well-Worn)weapon · milspecGarfield$2.69$0.350.13x17h

MP9 | Modest Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specGarfield$2.69$0.230.09x17h

P250 | Verdigris (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specGarfield$2.69$0.280.10x17h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.58%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$2.69	76.58%	19
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$2.69	76.32%	19
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$2.69	76.26%	19
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$2.69	76.64%	19
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$2.69	76.97%	19
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$2.69	76.97%	19
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$2.69	77.01%	19
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$2.69	77.04%	19
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$2.69	77.07%	19
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$2.69	77.54%	19
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$2.69	77.53%	19
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$2.69	77.49%	19
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$2.69	77.52%	19
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$2.69	77.51%	19
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$2.69	77.50%	19
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$2.69	77.48%	19
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$2.69	77.48%	19
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$2.69	77.49%	19
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$2.69	77.49%	19
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$2.69	77.44%	19
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$2.69	77.40%	19
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$2.69	77.56%	19
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$2.69	77.95%	19
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$2.69	77.93%	19
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$2.69	77.83%	19
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$2.69	77.52%	19
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$2.69	77.61%	19
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$2.69	77.61%	19
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$2.69	77.62%	19
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$2.69	77.68%	19

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed2 3.5%classified 0.0%restricted 0.0%blue 0.0%mil spec 11.3%#4b69ff 0.0%light blue 0.7%industrial 2.4%Common 18.4%consumer 18.7%#B0C3D9 18.8%Consumer Grade 19.0%milspec 7.0%best hit —