Chroma Case
A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$4.09
Advertised RTP
75.59%
EV $3.09 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.74%
30 openings, odds method
Variance
2.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
31.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 30 openings and 10.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.59%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $4.09 | 75.59% | 13 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $4.09 | 75.45% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $4.09 | 75.38% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $4.09 | 75.71% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $4.09 | 76.10% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $4.09 | 76.06% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $4.09 | 76.05% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $4.09 | 76.09% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $4.09 | 76.13% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $4.09 | 76.57% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $4.09 | 76.58% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $4.09 | 76.57% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $4.09 | 76.58% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $4.09 | 76.62% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $4.09 | 76.53% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $4.09 | 76.62% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $4.09 | 76.59% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $4.09 | 76.62% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $4.09 | 76.63% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $4.09 | 76.57% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $4.09 | 76.52% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $4.09 | 76.65% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $4.09 | 77.02% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $4.09 | 77.02% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $4.09 | 76.91% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $4.09 | 76.61% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $4.09 | 76.68% | 13 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $4.09 | 76.74% | 13 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $4.09 | 76.68% | 13 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $4.09 | 76.69% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedsunny 0.0%covert 0.1%classified 7.5%#8847ff 47.3%restricted 45.1%best hit —