CyberLeek
A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.11
Advertised RTP
77.24%
EV $0.08 from 28 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.33%
10.2K openings, odds method
Variance
0.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
37.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 78.29% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (89.72% – 92.93%, 10,156 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.2K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 77.24%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.11 | 77.24% | 28 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.11 | 77.16% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.11 | 77.24% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.11 | 77.40% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.11 | 77.78% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.11 | 77.85% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.11 | 77.69% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.11 | 77.81% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.11 | 77.88% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.11 | 78.44% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.11 | 78.31% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.11 | 78.29% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.11 | 78.31% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.11 | 78.37% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.11 | 78.35% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.11 | 78.37% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.11 | 78.34% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.11 | 78.31% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.11 | 78.44% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.11 | 78.41% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.11 | 78.18% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.11 | 78.44% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.11 | 78.81% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.11 | 78.80% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.11 | 78.68% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.11 | 78.38% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.11 | 78.46% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.11 | 78.47% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.11 | 78.48% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.11 | 78.37% | 28 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 15.8%Legendary 0.0%Classified 0.0%classified 0.0%violet 0.0%restricted 0.2%#8847ff 0.4%#4b69ff 12.2%blue 20.0%mil spec 1.4%milspec 15.8%Rare 18.5%Uncommon 15.7%best hit —