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DaniDropper

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price
$9.49
Advertised RTP
76.30%
EV $7.24 from 37 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.40%
958 openings, odds method
Variance
0.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
31.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.7%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
79.50%±11.43101 openings
7 days
80.75%±4.03810 openings
30 days
80.40%±3.75958 openings
since tracking started
80.40%±3.75958 openings
67.5%79.5%91.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h10179.50%±11.4+0.5σodds
7d81080.75%±4.03+1.8σodds
30d95880.40%±3.75+1.7σodds
All95880.40%±3.75+1.7σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 958 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AUG | Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 134,816$3350.0%00.0—
★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Field-Tested)gloves · sunny1 in 80,026$2300.0%00.0—
★ Skeleton Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 78,520$2270.0%00.0—
Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 59,253$1970.0%00.0—
★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · rare1 in 54,423$1890.0%00.0—
★ Bayonet | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 25,228$1380.1%00.0—
MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 15,578$1150.1%00.1—
M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 13,830$1100.1%00.1—
M4A1-S | Master Piece (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 10,324$99.460.1%00.1—
SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 8,214$91.770.2%10.1—
★ Moto Gloves | Polygon (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 6,270$83.520.2%00.2—
MP9 | Stained Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 5,703$80.820.2%00.2—
Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 3,398$67.610.3%20.3—
AK-47 | Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red1 in 2,533$61.120.3%00.4—
★ Broken Fang Gloves | Unhinged (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 1,363$49.410.5%20.7—
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 825$41.540.7%21.21.72×
FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 630$37.820.8%31.51.97×
Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 617$37.550.8%51.63.22×
AK-47 | Inheritance (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 422$32.871.1%42.31.76×
AWP | Electric Hive (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 266$27.871.4%23.60.56×
Glock-18 | AXIA (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare1 in 94$18.892.8%910.20.88×
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 68$16.583.4%1414.10.99×
AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 41$13.274.5%2323.50.98×
M4A4 | Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 33$11.975.0%2529.20.86×
SSG 08 | Detour (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 30$11.375.3%1432.40.43×
Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 25$10.405.7%2938.30.76×
AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 21$9.526.1%4144.60.92×
Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 20$9.076.3%248.20.04×
Charm | Semi-Preciouscharm · rare1 in 18$8.596.5%4952.30.94×
Nova | Graphite (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted1 in 17$8.126.6%5256.70.92×
M4A1-S | Basilisk (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 14$6.846.9%7369.61.05×
MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 13$6.446.8%6273.60.84×
M4A1-S | Control Panel (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 11$4.555.9%10789.51.20×
AUG | Death by Puppy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 11$4.235.5%10490.71.15×
UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 11$4.125.4%9490.91.03×
Zeus x27 | Olympus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 11$3.985.2%2391.10.25×
AK-47 | Rat Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 11$3.704.8%7390.90.80×
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
M4A1-S | Control Panel (Well-Worn)weapon · classified99$9.49$4.560.48x
Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted99$9.49$10.481.10x
M4A4 | Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified99$9.49$11.791.24x
AUG | Death by Puppy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified乂 N I S M O 乂$9.49$4.240.45x
M4A1-S | Control Panel (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedSYND1CAT$9.49$4.560.48x
AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedSYND1CAT$9.49$9.501.00x
AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified🩶L,E,K,A🩶$9.49$9.501.00x
AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted🩶L,E,K,A🩶$9.49$12.941.36x
Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical🩶L,E,K,A🩶$9.49$8.830.93x
AK-47 | Rat Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · violetARD.RP$9.49$3.700.39x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.30%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC$9.4976.30%37
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC$9.4976.15%37
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC$9.4976.13%37
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC$9.4976.39%37
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC$9.4976.75%37
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC$9.4976.77%36
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC$9.4976.75%36
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC$9.4976.81%36
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC$9.4976.87%36
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC$9.4977.29%36
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$9.4977.26%36
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC$9.4977.26%36
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC$9.4977.30%36
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC$9.4977.30%36
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC$9.4977.31%36
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC$9.4977.30%36
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC$9.4977.28%36
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC$9.4977.30%37
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC$9.4977.28%37
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC$9.4977.30%36
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC$9.4977.22%36
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC$9.4977.35%37
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC$9.4977.70%37
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC$9.4977.70%37
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC$9.4977.60%37
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC$9.4977.30%37
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC$9.4977.41%36
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC$9.4977.37%37
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$9.4977.39%36
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC$9.4977.36%37
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%sunny 0.0%classified 36.1%rare 6.5%gold 0.0%extraordinary 0.1%restricted 6.5%red 0.3%pink 0.2%Ancient 0.2%mil spec 3.4%Mythical 5.0%Restricted 5.9%#8847ff 7.3%Legendary 19.0%violet 9.5%best hit —