Dead man's chest

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.34

Advertised RTP

76.09%

EV $0.26 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d

75.74%

4 openings, odds method

Variance

1.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

28.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

71.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

4 openings · below min

30 days

4 openings · below min

since tracking started

4 openings · below min

-0.5%100.5%201.5%

Small sample. 4 openings and 1.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	4	75.74%±125.2	—	odds
30d	4	75.74%±125.2	—	odds
All	4	75.74%±125.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| The Coalition (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 199,828	$136	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AUG \| Chameleon (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 199,045	$76.70	0.1%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 186,677	$31.18	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 94,935	$12.50	0.1%	0	0.0	—
MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 88,923	$12.01	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 57,043	$9.52	0.1%	0	0.0	—
FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 21,868	$6.42	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 19,452	$6.15	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 11,599	$5.10	0.2%	0	0.0	—
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 6,836	$4.23	0.2%	0	0.0	—
P90 \| Nostalgia (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 4,619	$3.70	0.3%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 3,587	$3.39	0.4%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 2,416	$2.96	0.5%	0	0.0	—
Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,393	$2.95	0.5%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 962	$2.16	0.9%	0	0.0	—
Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 639	$1.88	1.1%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 523	$1.75	1.3%	0	0.0	—
P90 \| Chopper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 494	$1.72	1.3%	0	0.0	—
M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 324	$1.48	1.8%	0	0.0	—
Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 223	$1.30	2.3%	0	0.0	—
MP7 \| Powercore (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 74	$0.87	4.5%	0	0.1	—
Nova \| Wild Six (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 25	$0.56	8.7%	0	0.2	—
Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 19	$0.49	9.9%	1	0.2	—
CZ75-Auto \| Polymer (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 13	$0.40	12.0%	0	0.3	—
P250 \| Iron Clad (Field-Tested)weapon · 1	1 in 12	$0.37	12.5%	0	0.3	—
MAC-10 \| Classic Crate (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	11.3%	$0.31	13.5%	0	0.5	—
R8 Revolver \| Bone Forged (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	13.6%	$0.26	13.5%	0	0.5	—
FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	15.2%	$0.11	6.6%	0	0.6	—
M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	12.9%	$0.08	4.2%	1	0.5	—
Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	10.1%	$0.06	2.3%	0	0.4	—
SSG 08 \| Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 20	$0.03	0.5%	0	0.2	—
SG 553 \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear)weapon · Common	1 in 55	$0.01	0.1%	0	0.1	—
PP-Bizon \| Urban Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 71	<$0.01	0.0%	0	0.1	—

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | Poly Mag (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecUR MOM IS GAY$0.34$0.080.24x6d

Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedUR MOM IS GAY$0.34$0.511.50x6d

Nova | Wild Six (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedUR MOM IS GAY$0.34$0.361.06x6d

FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffUR MOM IS GAY$0.34$0.080.22x6d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.09%

No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.34	76.09%	33
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.34	75.83%	33
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.34	75.89%	33
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.34	76.20%	33
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.34	76.48%	33
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.34	76.49%	33
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.34	76.47%	33
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.34	76.51%	33
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.34	76.61%	33
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.34	77.03%	33
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.34	77.07%	33
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.34	77.01%	33
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0.34	77.07%	33
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.34	77.03%	33
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.34	77.03%	33
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.34	77.08%	33
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.34	77.00%	33
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.34	77.10%	33
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0.34	77.06%	33
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.34	77.02%	33
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.34	77.06%	33
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.34	77.09%	33
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.34	77.38%	33
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.34	77.43%	33
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.34	77.32%	33
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0.34	77.07%	33
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0.34	77.20%	33
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.34	77.22%	33
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.34	77.14%	33
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$0.34	77.15%	33

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 8.6%red 0.0%covert 0.0%Ancient 0.0%classified 0.0%#d32ee6 0.0%pink 0.0%#8847ff 4.2%restricted 6.2%violet 0.2%Rare 10.3%Mythical 1.3%#4b69ff 7.8%mil spec 11.3%blue 13.6%milspec 28.1%consumer 6.4%Common 1.8%best hit —