Desert Eagle
A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$2.49
Advertised RTP
74.38%
EV $1.85 from 26 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.71%
2,768 openings, odds method
Variance
0.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
32.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 75.24% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (78.79% – 86.63%, 2,768 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,778 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 74.38%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $2.49 | 74.38% | 26 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $2.49 | 74.16% | 26 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $2.49 | 74.20% | 26 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $2.49 | 74.48% | 26 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $2.49 | 74.78% | 26 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $2.49 | 74.87% | 26 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $2.49 | 74.76% | 26 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $2.49 | 74.89% | 26 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $2.49 | 74.85% | 26 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.49 | 75.39% | 26 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.49 | 75.32% | 26 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $2.49 | 75.23% | 26 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $2.49 | 75.32% | 26 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $2.49 | 75.37% | 26 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $2.49 | 75.28% | 26 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.49 | 75.31% | 26 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.49 | 75.32% | 26 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $2.49 | 75.24% | 26 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $2.49 | 75.32% | 26 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.49 | 75.39% | 26 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.49 | 75.34% | 26 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.49 | 75.42% | 26 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $2.49 | 75.66% | 26 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $2.49 | 75.78% | 26 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $2.49 | 75.60% | 26 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $2.49 | 75.34% | 26 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $2.49 | 75.40% | 26 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.49 | 75.40% | 26 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.49 | 75.38% | 26 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $2.49 | 75.39% | 26 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%pink 11.6%classified 0.3%restricted 24.0%rare 0.0%mil spec 9.9%light blue 0.4%Industrial Grade 0.4%violet 2.5%Legendary 3.6%Uncommon 12.2%blue 12.0%blueLight 11.7%#8847ff 11.4%best hit —