Кибер-осень
A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$53.99
Advertised RTP
76.63%
EV $41.37 from 29 items
Observed RTP, 30d
70.29%
19 openings, odds method
Variance
0.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
32.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 19 openings and 5.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.63%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $53.99 | 76.63% | 29 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $53.99 | 76.45% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $53.99 | 76.43% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $53.99 | 76.73% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $53.99 | 77.07% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $53.99 | 77.07% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $53.99 | 77.06% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $53.99 | 77.12% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $53.99 | 77.19% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $53.99 | 77.62% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $53.99 | 77.59% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $53.99 | 77.58% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $53.99 | 77.61% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $53.99 | 77.61% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $53.99 | 77.61% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $53.99 | 77.62% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $53.99 | 77.59% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $53.99 | 77.60% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $53.99 | 77.61% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $53.99 | 77.61% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $53.99 | 77.55% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $53.99 | 77.67% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $53.99 | 78.02% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $53.99 | 78.03% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $53.99 | 77.94% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $53.99 | 77.62% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $53.99 | 77.71% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $53.99 | 77.71% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $53.99 | 77.72% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $53.99 | 77.68% | 28 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 27.5%restricted 3.0%sunny 0.0%gold 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%legendary 0.0%covert knife 0.1%Immortal 0.2%red 13.3%classified 38.8%Ancient 8.4%rare 8.6%best hit —