Допплер эра
A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$40.99
Advertised RTP
66.60%
EV $27.30 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
70.44%
870 openings, odds method
Variance
2.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 10
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 871 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 53,537 | $1,996 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife | 1 in 17,825 | $1,286 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 4,458 | $791 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 4,340 | $784 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 793 | $441 | 2.0% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.73× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 213 | $283 | 4.9% | 4 | 4.1 | 0.98× |
| ★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 179 | $267 | 5.5% | 6 | 4.9 | 1.23× |
| ★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700 | 1 in 111 | $228 | 7.5% | 8 | 7.8 | 1.02× |
| ★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 96 | $216 | 8.3% | 11 | 9.1 | 1.21× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 15 | $114 | 27.7% | 52 | 57.8 | 0.90× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 13 | $109 | 29.9% | 76 | 65.5 | 1.16× |
| AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary | 82.7% | $4.15 | 12.6% | 704 | 720.3 | 0.98× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 66.60%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $40.99 | 66.60% | 12 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $40.99 | 66.46% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $40.99 | 66.45% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $40.99 | 66.70% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $40.99 | 67.00% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $40.99 | 66.99% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $40.99 | 66.99% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $40.99 | 67.04% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $40.99 | 67.09% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $40.99 | 67.47% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $40.99 | 67.45% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $40.99 | 67.44% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $40.99 | 67.46% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $40.99 | 67.45% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $40.99 | 67.47% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $40.99 | 67.48% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $40.99 | 67.44% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $40.99 | 67.46% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $40.99 | 67.47% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $40.99 | 67.46% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $40.99 | 67.40% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $40.99 | 67.51% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $40.99 | 67.82% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $40.99 | 67.83% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $40.99 | 67.75% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $40.99 | 67.47% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $40.99 | 67.56% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $40.99 | 67.54% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $40.99 | 67.56% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $40.99 | 67.52% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedsunny 8.9%covert knife 0.0%#ffd700 0.9%Covert 7.5%Legendary 82.7%best hit —