Fogoleo
A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$5.59
Advertised RTP
76.61%
EV $4.28 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.42%
1,003 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
21.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,006 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.61%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $5.59 | 76.61% | 42 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $5.59 | 76.48% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $5.59 | 76.45% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $5.59 | 76.73% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $5.59 | 77.07% | 42 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $5.59 | 77.07% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $5.59 | 77.03% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $5.59 | 77.11% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $5.59 | 77.21% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $5.59 | 77.59% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $5.59 | 77.58% | 42 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $5.59 | 77.57% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $5.59 | 77.62% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $5.59 | 77.58% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $5.59 | 77.61% | 42 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $5.59 | 77.61% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $5.59 | 77.56% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $5.59 | 77.60% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $5.59 | 77.61% | 42 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $5.59 | 77.62% | 42 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $5.59 | 77.54% | 42 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $5.59 | 77.68% | 42 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $5.59 | 78.03% | 42 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $5.59 | 78.03% | 42 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $5.59 | 77.90% | 42 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $5.59 | 77.64% | 42 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $5.59 | 77.69% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $5.59 | 77.71% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $5.59 | 77.72% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $5.59 | 77.66% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrare 0.0%covert 0.2%classified 19.4%extraordinary 0.0%restricted 41.6%Ancient 0.1%red 0.1%mil spec 14.0%pink 2.0%#d32ee6 11.9%violet 10.6%best hit —