Golden doubloon

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$1.39

Advertised RTP

73.87%

EV $1.03 from 39 items

Observed RTP, 30d

—

no counted openings

Variance

1.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

25.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	—	—	—
7d	—	—	—
30d	—	—	—
All	—	—	—

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 192,615	$171	0.1%	—
Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 192,548	$170	0.1%	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 178,684	$117	0.1%	—
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 173,279	$107	0.1%	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 165,488	$96.97	0.1%	—
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 144,705	$79.24	0.1%	—
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 141,269	$77.05	0.1%	—
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 106,412	$60.01	0.1%	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 94,807	$55.53	0.1%	—
★ Gut Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 92,560	$54.70	0.1%	—
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 88,060	$53.07	0.1%	—
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 78,269	$49.62	0.1%	—
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 63,624	$44.58	0.1%	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 50,169	$39.91	0.1%	—
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 47,991	$39.13	0.1%	—
★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company (Field-Tested)gloves · Immortal	1 in 42,825	$37.25	0.1%	—
AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 14,293	$24.41	0.2%	—
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 4,745	$16.59	0.3%	—
P250 \| Mehndi (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,747	$15.29	0.4%	—
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,096	$12.53	0.6%	—
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 784	$8.94	1.1%	—
SSG 08 \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 618	$8.24	1.3%	—
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 220	$5.72	2.5%	—
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 162	$5.12	3.1%	—
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 96	$4.22	4.3%	—
MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 55	$3.40	6.0%	—
P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 55	$3.39	6.0%	—
AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 24	$2.34	9.5%	—
CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 22	$2.26	9.8%	—
R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	10.6%	$1.21	12.5%	—
MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	10.8%	$1.18	12.4%	—
Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	12.1%	$0.65	7.7%	—
USP-S \| Torque (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	12.0%	$0.61	7.1%	—
Galil AR \| Signal (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	11.5%	$0.56	6.3%	—
Desert Eagle \| Corinthian (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 10	$0.40	3.7%	—
P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 13	$0.30	2.3%	—
MP9 \| Modest Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 15	$0.25	1.6%	—
M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 41	$0.09	0.2%	—
PP-Bizon \| Brass (Well-Worn)weapon · 1	1 in 52	$0.07	0.1%	—

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

No history yet

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC	$1.39	73.87%	39
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$1.39	73.63%	39
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$1.39	73.60%	39
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$1.39	73.38%	39
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$1.39	73.83%	39
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$1.39	74.07%	39
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$1.39	74.03%	39
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$1.39	74.19%	39
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$1.39	74.09%	39
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$1.39	74.16%	39
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$1.39	74.56%	39
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$1.39	74.58%	39
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$1.39	74.59%	39
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$1.39	74.64%	39
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$1.39	74.64%	39
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$1.39	74.70%	39
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$1.39	74.67%	39
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$1.39	74.55%	39
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$1.39	74.58%	39
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$1.39	74.54%	39
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$1.39	74.62%	39
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$1.39	74.54%	39
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$1.39	74.69%	39
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$1.39	74.98%	39
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$1.39	74.99%	39
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$1.39	74.88%	39
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$1.39	74.70%	39
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$1.39	74.77%	39
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$1.39	74.71%	39
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$1.39	74.68%	39

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 1.9%covert 0.0%red 0.0%covert knife 0.0%Immortal 0.0%classified 13.6%mil spec 30.9%#d32ee6 0.5%Legendary 0.6%pink 1.8%#8847ff 15.0%restricted 16.0%blue 17.2%milspec 2.4%