Пирамида Хеопса

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price
$67.99
Advertised RTP
69.74%
EV $47.42 from 31 items
Observed RTP, 30d
69.82%
1,150 openings, odds method
Variance
0.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
31.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.2%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
82 openings · below min
7 days
69.68%±3.28740 openings
30 days
69.82%±2.641,150 openings
since tracking started
69.82%±2.641,150 openings
57.5%67.8%78.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h8267.75%±9.45—odds
7d74069.68%±3.28−0.5σodds
30d1,15069.82%±2.64−0.7σodds
All1,15069.82%±2.64−0.7σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,150 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 6,149$4640.2%00.2—
★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary1 in 6,024$4600.2%00.2—
★ Talon Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · epic1 in 4,643$4210.2%00.2—
M4A4 | Daybreak (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 3,813$3930.2%00.3—
AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 529$1990.8%32.21.38×
SG 553 | Hazard Pay (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified1 in 393$1791.0%32.91.02×
Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 341$1711.1%43.41.19×
Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 284$1601.2%34.00.74×
M4A4 | The Coalition (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 181$1361.6%36.30.47×
AK-47 | Panthera onca (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 177$1351.6%66.50.93×
AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 129$1202.0%108.91.12×
★ Hand Wraps | Badlands (Well-Worn)gloves · gold1 in 123$1182.0%69.40.64×
M4A4 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 103$1102.3%311.20.27×
M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 99$1082.3%511.70.43×
AK-47 | The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 83$1012.6%113.80.07×
AWP | BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 69$93.932.9%1516.60.90×
AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 69$93.882.9%1516.70.90×
★ Huntsman Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 47$79.663.6%2324.70.93×
M4A4 | Hellfire (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 37$72.264.1%2730.70.88×
★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 27$61.454.8%3743.00.86×
USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 26$60.934.9%2943.70.66×
AWP | Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 23$56.895.2%149.70.02×
M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 23$56.565.2%4850.20.96×
AK-47 | Red Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 17$47.995.8%6266.20.94×
P90 | Cold Blooded (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 14$40.176.2%5784.20.68×
Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 13$38.246.2%8489.10.94×
★ Moto Gloves | Transport (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 12$34.626.2%8198.30.82×
FAMAS | Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 10$29.566.0%75110.30.68×
M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 10$28.605.9%79112.30.70×
AWP | Electric Hive (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 10$27.875.8%99113.70.87×
AK-47 | Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified10.4%$24.005.3%101119.50.85×
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 69.74%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC$67.9969.74%31
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC$67.9969.58%31
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC$67.9969.56%31
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC$67.9969.83%31
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC$67.9970.14%31
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC$67.9970.15%31
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC$67.9970.13%31
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC$67.9970.19%31
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC$67.9970.25%31
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC$67.9970.64%31
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$67.9970.62%31
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC$67.9970.61%31
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC$67.9970.64%31
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC$67.9970.64%31
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC$67.9970.63%31
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC$67.9970.64%31
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC$67.9970.62%31
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC$67.9970.63%31
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC$67.9970.63%31
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC$67.9970.64%31
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC$67.9970.57%31
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC$67.9970.69%31
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC$67.9971.01%31
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC$67.9971.02%31
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC$67.9970.93%31
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC$67.9970.64%31
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC$67.9970.73%32
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC$67.9970.72%31
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$67.9970.73%31
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC$67.9970.70%31
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 51.4%extraordinary 8.6%epic 0.0%#8847ff 0.0%Classified 0.3%pink 0.9%red 0.6%gold 0.8%classified 37.5%best hit —