Porsche GT3 RS

A case on csgo.net (Ultra), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$269.00

Advertised RTP

73.57%

EV $197.90 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

78.59%

111 openings, odds method

Variance

0.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

33.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

91.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

14 openings · below min

7 days

97 openings · below min

30 days

78.59%±8.54111 openings

since tracking started

78.59%±8.54111 openings

59.5%84.5%109.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	14	84.47%±24.2	—	odds
7d	97	74.65%±9.16	—	odds
30d	111	78.59%±8.54	+1.0σ	odds
All	111	78.59%±8.54	+1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 111 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 126	$791	3.2%	1	0.9	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 57	$575	5.1%	1	2.0	0.51×
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 56	$569	5.2%	2	2.0	1.00×
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 54	$563	5.3%	4	2.1	1.95×
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 45	$518	5.8%	1	2.5	0.40×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 13	$255	9.6%	15	8.2	1.82×
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 11	$205	9.2%	5	9.9	0.51×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 11	$199	9.1%	9	10.0	0.90×
M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 11	$191	8.9%	13	10.3	1.27×
SG 553 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$182	8.7%	6	10.5	0.57×
Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10	$171	8.3%	10	10.7	0.93×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10	$124	6.1%	6	10.8	0.56×
★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10	$116	5.6%	12	10.6	1.13×
★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 11	$109	5.2%	9	10.4	0.86×
Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 11	$104	4.8%	6	10.2	0.59×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covertGET25$269$8303.09x3d

★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert240 km/h peek хасбулла$269$5812.16x23h

AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covertPoromedic$269$5782.15x7d

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare➳𝘽𝙖𝙙.𝘽𝙤𝙮ツ$269$5732.13x7d

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rarePoromedic$269$5722.13x7d

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rareGET25$269$5662.10x3d

Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rareGandon$269$5592.08x3d

AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · covertdow$269$5382.00x20h

AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covertGET25$269$5301.97x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)weapon · redpOca$269$1910.71x56m

M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)weapon · redMPC TURN OFF CAPS$269$1910.71x11h

Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertMPC TURN OFF CAPS$269$1710.64x11h

AK-47 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedMPC TURN OFF CAPS$269$2040.76x11h

★ Stiletto Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covertMPC TURN OFF CAPS$269$2440.91x11h

AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covertQCOLD13$269$2110.78x16h

★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knifeCorona$269$1090.40x19h

★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knifePoromedic$269$1090.40x20h

AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · covertdow$269$5382.00x20h

Galil AR | Chatterbox (Well-Worn)weapon · covert240 km/h peek хасбулла$269$1040.39x23h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 73.57%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$269	73.57%	15
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$269	73.40%	15
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$269	73.38%	15
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$269	73.67%	15
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$269	73.99%	15
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$269	74.00%	15
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$269	73.98%	15
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$269	74.04%	15
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$269	74.11%	15
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$269	74.52%	15
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$269	74.50%	15
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$269	74.49%	15
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$269	74.51%	15
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$269	74.51%	15
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$269	74.51%	16
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$269	74.52%	15
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$269	74.49%	15
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$269	74.50%	15
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$269	74.51%	15
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$269	74.51%	15
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$269	74.45%	15
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$269	74.57%	15
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$269	74.91%	15
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$269	74.92%	15
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$269	74.82%	15
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$269	74.52%	15
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$269	74.61%	16
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$269	74.60%	16
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$269	74.61%	16
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$269	74.59%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 41.9%rare 1.8%classified 8.9%red 9.2%restricted 9.4%extraordinary 19.3%covert knife 9.4%best hit $830 (3.09x)