Горячий шоколад

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$20.99

Advertised RTP

73.88%

EV $15.51 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d

76.61%

3,356 openings, odds method

Variance

0.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

35.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

88.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

68.67%±6.89415 openings

7 days

76.75%±2.712,757 openings

30 days

76.61%±2.453,356 openings

since tracking started

76.61%±2.453,356 openings

61.0%70.5%80.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	415	68.67%±6.89	−1.5σ	odds
7d	2,757	76.75%±2.71	+1.5σ	odds
30d	3,356	76.61%±2.45	+1.5σ	odds
All	3,356	76.61%±2.45	+1.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,359 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 9,699	$626	0.4%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 9,590	$563	0.4%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 9,480	$518	0.4%	0	0.4	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 8,323	$335	0.3%	1	0.4	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 7,358	$277	0.2%	1	0.5	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 7,285	$273	0.2%	0	0.5	—
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,416	$208	0.2%	0	0.6	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 4,955	$195	0.3%	2	0.7	—
Glock-18 \| Ghost Protocol (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 3,709	$164	0.3%	0	0.9	—
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,454	$108	0.5%	3	2.3	1.30×
Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,316	$104	0.5%	4	2.6	1.57×
AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 784	$85.35	0.7%	6	4.3	1.40×
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 498	$72.26	0.9%	7	6.7	1.04×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 312	$60.93	1.3%	9	10.8	0.83×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 213	$53.04	1.6%	13	15.8	0.82×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 89	$38.24	2.8%	44	37.9	1.16×
AWP \| LongDog (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 71	$35.04	3.2%	44	47.4	0.93×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 51	$30.73	3.9%	60	65.7	0.91×
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 43	$28.60	4.3%	78	78.0	1.00×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 29	$24.07	5.3%	109	115.4	0.94×
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 19	$19.25	6.7%	122	180.4	0.68×
Charm \| Hot Howlcharm · Ancient	1 in 18	$18.80	6.8%	213	188.2	1.13×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 16	$17.70	7.1%	111	209.0	0.53×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 16	$17.53	7.2%	223	212.5	1.05×
Tec-9 \| Toxic (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 14	$16.26	7.5%	43	239.6	0.18×
P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	10.2%	$12.25	8.1%	354	342.5	1.03×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	10.4%	$12.02	8.0%	419	348.7	1.20×
Nova \| Bloomstick (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	11.0%	$11.24	8.0%	415	370.0	1.12×
XM1014 \| Tranquility (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	13.0%	$7.95	6.7%	439	437.0	1.00×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	13.1%	$7.60	6.4%	170	439.6	0.39×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert𝖎𝖈𝖊𝖈𝖗𝖎𝖒𝖊$20.99$67232.00x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

XM1014 | Tranquility (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedHypE$20.99$8.430.40x2m

M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedHypE$20.99$17.490.83x2m

AWP | LongDog (Well-Worn)weapon · redHypE$20.99$35.801.71x4m

M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedHypE$20.99$17.490.83x4m

P250 | Muertos (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedHypE$20.99$12.190.58x4m

XM1014 | Tranquility (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedHypE$20.99$8.430.40x4m

M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested)weapon · covertHypE$20.99$29.521.41x5m

XM1014 | Tranquility (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedHypE$20.99$8.430.40x5m

XM1014 | Tranquility (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedBroUgi$20.99$8.430.40x8m

Charm | Hot Howlcharm · AncientBroUgi$20.99$18.690.89x9m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 73.88%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$20.99	73.88%	30
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$20.99	73.71%	29
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$20.99	73.70%	30
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$20.99	73.98%	30
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$20.99	74.30%	29
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$20.99	74.31%	30
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$20.99	74.29%	30
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$20.99	74.35%	29
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$20.99	74.42%	30
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$20.99	74.83%	30
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$20.99	74.82%	30
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$20.99	74.80%	30
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$20.99	74.83%	30
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$20.99	74.83%	30
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$20.99	74.83%	29
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$20.99	74.84%	30
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$20.99	74.81%	30
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$20.99	74.82%	30
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$20.99	74.83%	30
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$20.99	74.83%	30
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$20.99	74.76%	29
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$20.99	74.89%	30
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$20.99	75.23%	30
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$20.99	75.22%	29
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$20.99	75.14%	29
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$20.99	74.84%	29
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$20.99	74.93%	29
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$20.99	74.93%	29
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$20.99	74.92%	29
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$20.99	74.91%	29

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 4.5%rare 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%red 3.5%classified 66.2%Ancient 5.6%mil spec 7.1%pink 13.1%best hit $672 (32.00x)