Italy

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.09

Advertised RTP

68.84%

EV $0.06 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

177.43%

16 openings, odds method

Variance

0.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

34.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

9 openings · below min

30 days

16 openings · below min

since tracking started

16 openings · below min

69.5%156.8%244.0%

Small sample. 16 openings and 4.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	9	205.80%±37.8	—	odds
30d	16	177.43%±28.5	—	odds
All	16	177.43%±28.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,833	$1.02	0.4%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 3,859	$1.02	0.4%	0	0.0	—
MP7 \| Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 1,060	$0.66	1.0%	1	0.0	—
Nova \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 13	$0.10	13.3%	0	1.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 12	$0.10	13.4%	0	1.3	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 12	$0.10	13.4%	12	1.4	8.84×
XM1014 \| CaliCamo (Minimal Wear)weapon · 2	1 in 10	$0.08	13.4%	0	1.6	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Gunsmoke (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	11.2%	$0.07	12.5%	0	1.8	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Stained (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	11.4%	$0.07	12.3%	0	1.8	0.00×
P2000 \| Granite Marbleized (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	12.0%	$0.05	10.4%	0	1.9	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 11	$0.03	4.2%	0	1.5	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Groundwater (Well-Worn)weapon · Common	1 in 15	$0.02	1.8%	0	1.0	0.00×
AUG \| Contractor (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 15	$0.02	1.8%	0	1.1	0.00×
Nova \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 18	$0.01	1.2%	0	0.9	—
FAMAS \| Colony (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 35	<$0.01	0.3%	0	0.5	—

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · bluetripflex45$0.09$0.111.22x1d

Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueKillua Zoldyck$0.09$0.151.64x3d

MP7 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · blueKillua Zoldyck$0.09$0.687.56x3d

Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueKillua Zoldyck$0.09$0.151.64x3d

Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueЧИЧА Сыроежкин$0.09$0.151.64x3d

Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blue[GRS] Capo$0.09$0.111.20x5d

Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blueадреналин черный$0.09$0.111.20x5d

Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blueПИПКАVOKI$0.09$0.111.21x6d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 68.84%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.09	68.84%	15
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.09	68.71%	15
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.09	68.98%	15
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.09	69.02%	15
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.09	69.48%	15
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.09	69.37%	15
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.09	69.64%	15
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.09	69.40%	15
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.09	69.61%	15
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.09	69.70%	15
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.09	69.67%	15
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.09	69.70%	15
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0.09	69.82%	15
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.09	69.86%	15
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.09	69.76%	15
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.09	69.66%	15
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.09	69.77%	15
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.09	69.91%	15
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0.09	69.83%	15
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.09	69.97%	15
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.09	69.87%	15
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.09	70.13%	15
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.09	70.32%	15
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.09	70.26%	15
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.09	70.20%	15
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0.09	69.83%	15
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0.09	70.09%	15
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.09	70.00%	15
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.09	70.18%	15
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$0.09	70.08%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed2 9.9%restricted 0.0%mil spec 0.0%blue 8.6%industrial 50.8%consumer 24.2%Common 6.5%best hit —