IX Gaming case

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$16.99

Advertised RTP

76.85%

EV $13.06 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d

79.19%

971 openings, odds method

Variance

0.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

37.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

72 openings · below min

7 days

77.06%±5.18653 openings

30 days

79.19%±4.37971 openings

since tracking started

79.19%±4.37971 openings

50.0%67.0%84.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	72	65.72%±15.0	—	odds
7d	653	77.06%±5.18	−0.2σ	odds
30d	971	79.19%±4.37	+0.7σ	odds
All	971	79.19%±4.37	+0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 971 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 33,336	$265	0.1%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 26,846	$243	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 26,375	$241	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 24,049	$233	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,109	$170	0.1%	0	0.1	—
P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 9,350	$165	0.1%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 8,442	$160	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700	1 in 7,170	$151	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 5,820	$140	0.2%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,707	$120	0.2%	1	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,417	$117	0.3%	1	0.3	—
AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,356	$116	0.3%	0	0.3	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,160	$114	0.3%	0	0.3	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 3,005	$112	0.3%	2	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,743	$108	0.3%	1	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 2,489	$105	0.3%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,360	$85.34	0.5%	0	0.7	—
M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,057	$78.32	0.6%	0	0.9	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 816	$71.67	0.7%	1	1.2	0.84×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 785	$70.73	0.7%	2	1.2	1.62×
★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 522	$61.49	0.9%	0	1.9	0.00×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 496	$60.44	0.9%	7	2.0	3.58×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 486	$60.01	0.9%	2	2.0	1.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 320	$51.91	1.2%	1	3.0	0.33×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 152	$39.91	2.0%	3	6.4	0.47×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 144	$39.13	2.1%	6	6.8	0.89×
★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 119	$36.56	2.4%	3	8.2	0.37×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 88	$32.73	2.9%	9	11.1	0.81×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 71	$30.24	3.3%	15	13.7	1.10×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 39	$24.08	4.7%	17	24.6	0.69×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 18	$17.14	7.3%	15	54.1	0.28×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$16.59	7.6%	43	58.0	0.74×
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 16	$16.15	7.8%	47	61.2	0.77×
Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	11.1%	$11.73	10.0%	102	107.6	0.95×
AUG \| Syd Mead (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	12.1%	$11.02	10.2%	100	117.6	0.85×
P90 \| Shapewood (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	14.8%	$9.30	10.6%	145	144.1	1.01×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	16.2%	$8.44	10.5%	160	157.7	1.01×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	19.0%	$6.45	9.4%	132	184.1	0.72×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Well-Worn)weapon · pink31 rus$16.99$17.071.00x20m

P90 | Shapewood (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedHyKAC$16.99$9.300.55x40m

AUG | Syd Mead (Minimal Wear)weapon · LegendaryHyKAC$16.99$11.020.65x1h

P90 | Shapewood (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedHyKAC$16.99$9.300.55x1h

MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedHyKAC$16.99$6.450.38x1h

Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedWHO&SOS$16.99$16.590.98x1h

MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedWHO&SOS$16.99$6.450.38x1h

FAMAS | Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covertIwe$16.99$30.241.78x1h

MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedIwe$16.99$6.450.38x1h

MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedЖулик$16.99$6.450.38x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.85%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC	$16.99	76.85%	38
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$16.99	76.65%	38
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$16.99	76.49%	38
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$16.99	76.47%	38
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$16.99	76.78%	38
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$16.99	77.11%	38
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$16.99	77.10%	38
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$16.99	77.09%	39
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$16.99	77.15%	38
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$16.99	77.23%	38
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$16.99	77.65%	38
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$16.99	77.62%	38
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$16.99	77.61%	38
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$16.99	77.65%	38
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$16.99	77.64%	37
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$16.99	77.64%	38
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$16.99	77.66%	38
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$16.99	77.63%	38
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$16.99	77.63%	38
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$16.99	77.65%	38
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$16.99	77.64%	38
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$16.99	77.57%	37
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$16.99	77.70%	38
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$16.99	78.05%	37
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$16.99	78.07%	37
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$16.99	77.97%	37
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$16.99	77.65%	38
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$16.99	77.75%	38
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$16.99	77.74%	38
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$16.99	77.75%	38

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 4.9%extraordinary 0.8%#ffd700 0.0%covert knife 0.0%red 0.2%classified 53.5%gold 0.1%Covert 0.1%pink 5.6%#d32ee6 22.5%Legendary 12.1%best hit —