Leodobancarios

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$3.39

Advertised RTP

76.49%

EV $2.59 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d

77.77%

881 openings, odds method

Variance

0.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

26.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

60 openings · below min

7 days

78.23%±6.58722 openings

30 days

77.77%±5.96881 openings

since tracking started

77.77%±5.96881 openings

64.5%86.0%107.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	60	86.06%±21.0	—	odds
7d	722	78.23%±6.58	+0.3σ	odds
30d	881	77.77%±5.96	+0.2σ	odds
All	881	77.77%±5.96	+0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 881 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 164,233	$196	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 148,235	$167	0.0%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 142,762	$160	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 140,161	$156	0.0%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 94,858	$114	0.0%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 86,170	$107	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 69,567	$95.42	0.1%	0	0.0	—
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 66,350	$93.16	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 53,154	$83.84	0.1%	0	0.0	—
P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 35,729	$70.73	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 23,466	$60.01	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 19,288	$55.77	0.1%	0	0.0	—
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 17,337	$53.62	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 13,556	$49.05	0.1%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 7,554	$39.91	0.2%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 5,922	$36.68	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 4,614	$33.66	0.3%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,963	$31.94	0.3%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,957	$31.93	0.3%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,221	$29.76	0.4%	0	0.3	—
M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,811	$28.41	0.4%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,675	$27.93	0.4%	0	0.3	—
P90 \| Shallow Grave (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 1,611	$23.50	0.6%	1	0.5	—
USP-S \| Caiman (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,478	$22.82	0.6%	1	0.6	—
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 970	$19.76	0.8%	1	0.9	—
AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 240	$12.20	2.0%	4	3.7	1.09×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 43	$6.45	5.8%	19	20.7	0.92×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 41	$6.37	5.9%	5	21.3	0.23×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 25	$5.19	7.9%	6	34.9	0.17×
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 25	$5.12	8.1%	41	35.9	1.14×
MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 19	$4.56	9.3%	60	46.4	1.29×
AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 14	$3.85	11.0%	80	65.2	1.23×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	17.3%	$1.96	13.1%	79	152.7	0.52×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	18.4%	$1.74	12.3%	93	161.9	0.57×
SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	19.1%	$1.44	10.6%	128	168.5	0.76×
MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	18.8%	$1.18	8.6%	149	165.7	0.90×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAC-10 | Last Dive (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffgggdanli9$3.39$1.180.35x18m

XM1014 | Black Tieweapon · violetTanZero$3.39$1.200.35x25m

AK-47 | Slate (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalTanZero$3.39$3.861.14x25m

AK-47 | Steel Delta (Field-Tested)weapon · RareVam Pizda$3.39$1.900.56x37m

AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · RareMORIARTI$3.39$1.730.51x1h

AK-47 | Slate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythicalricardo$3.39$3.841.13x1h

MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary[1v4]❤Мур❤堕天使の叫$3.39$5.461.61x1h

SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff[1v4]❤Мур❤堕天使の叫$3.39$1.410.42x1h

AK-47 | Slate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical[1v4]❤Мур❤堕天使の叫$3.39$3.841.13x1h

MAC-10 | Last Dive (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff[1v4]❤Мур❤堕天使の叫$3.39$1.180.35x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.49%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC	$3.39	76.49%	36
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$3.39	76.24%	37
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$3.39	76.08%	37
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$3.39	76.09%	37
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$3.39	76.39%	37
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$3.39	76.71%	37
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$3.39	76.74%	37
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$3.39	76.73%	37
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$3.39	76.76%	37
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$3.39	76.87%	37
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$3.39	77.26%	37
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$3.39	77.19%	37
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$3.39	77.24%	37
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$3.39	77.25%	37
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$3.39	77.33%	37
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$3.39	77.27%	37
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$3.39	77.25%	37
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$3.39	77.26%	37
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$3.39	77.24%	36
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$3.39	77.26%	36
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$3.39	77.25%	37
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$3.39	77.25%	36
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$3.39	77.30%	36
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$3.39	77.63%	36
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$3.39	77.67%	37
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$3.39	77.60%	37
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$3.39	77.28%	37
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$3.39	77.36%	37
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$3.39	77.34%	38
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$3.39	77.35%	38

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 3.0%covert knife 0.0%covert 0.1%red 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%Ancient 0.0%mil spec 0.0%pink 2.5%Legendary 8.0%violet 5.3%Mythical 7.4%Rare 35.7%#8847ff 37.9%best hit —