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Александрийский маяк

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price
$239.00
Advertised RTP
75.94%
EV $181.50 from 19 items
Observed RTP, 30d
75.16%
125 openings, odds method
Variance
0.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
34.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.8%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
11 openings · below min
7 days
74.71%±9.19121 openings
30 days
75.16%±9.04125 openings
since tracking started
75.16%±9.04125 openings
40.0%69.0%98.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1169.03%±28.6—odds
7d12174.71%±9.19−0.5σodds
30d12575.16%±9.04−0.4σodds
All12575.16%±9.04−0.4σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 125 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AK-47 | Hydroponic (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 390$8671.2%10.3—
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny1 in 256$7471.6%10.5—
★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary1 in 239$7291.7%10.5—
★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 201$6851.9%10.6—
Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare1 in 116$5592.7%11.10.93×
M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 77$4773.4%01.60.00×
AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 71$4643.6%01.80.00×
AUG | Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 68$4563.7%11.80.55×
M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 57$4254.1%32.21.38×
★ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 25$2936.5%35.00.60×
AK-47 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 17$2407.7%57.30.69×
Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 13$1968.4%99.80.92×
★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 11$1768.6%1211.11.08×
AWP | Silk Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 10$1618.6%1012.10.82×
M4A1-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 10$1608.6%812.20.65×
AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 10$1568.6%1312.41.05×
★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert11.9%$1077.0%814.90.54×
★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary12.0%$1036.8%1615.01.07×
★ Moto Gloves | Polygon (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary11.8%$83.205.4%1114.70.75×
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Hydroponic (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedBARAKUDA$239$9343.91x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunnyrina$239$7473.13x
★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covertrina$239$7082.96x
★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinaryPlaceonme$239$6952.91x
Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rareГОЛЫЙ ПИСТОЛЕТ$239$5552.32x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · CovertПрикол$239$1090.46x
★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinarykeDo$239$1750.73x
★ Moto Gloves | Polygon (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryKeep™$239$83.180.35x
M4A1-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert97z$239$1620.68x
AK-47 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classified97z$239$2050.86x
AWP | Silk Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · classified-ʙʟᴀᴅᴇ$239$1620.68x
★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryMPC TURN OFF CAPS$239$1770.74x
AK-47 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedMPC TURN OFF CAPS$239$2040.85x
★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryVLIQ$239$1770.74x
AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covertVLIQ$239$1560.65x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.94%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC$23975.94%19
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC$23975.75%19
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC$23975.58%19
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC$23975.56%19
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC$23975.85%19
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC$23976.18%19
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC$23976.19%19
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC$23976.17%19
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC$23976.24%19
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC$23976.30%19
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC$23976.73%19
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$23976.70%19
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC$23976.69%19
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC$23976.72%19
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC$23976.72%19
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC$23976.72%19
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC$23976.73%19
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC$23976.70%19
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC$23976.71%19
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC$23976.72%20
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC$23976.72%20
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC$23976.66%20
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC$23976.78%19
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC$23977.13%19
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC$23977.14%20
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC$23977.04%20
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC$23976.73%19
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC$23976.83%20
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC$23976.82%18
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$23976.83%19
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 24.9%sunny 0.4%extraordinary 33.1%covert 27.1%rare 0.9%restricted 1.7%Covert 11.9%best hit $934 (3.91x)