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M4A4

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price
$13.99
Advertised RTP
74.08%
EV $10.36 from 31 items
Observed RTP, 30d
78.94%
756 openings, odds method
Variance
0.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
32.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.8%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
10 openings · below min
7 days
81.62%±5.39299 openings
30 days
78.94%±3.54756 openings
since tracking started
78.94%±3.54756 openings
44.0%75.0%106.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 75.06% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (75.40% – 82.48%, 756 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1074.87%±30.3—odds
7d29981.62%±5.39+2.5σodds
30d75678.94%±3.54+2.1σodds
All75678.94%±3.54+2.1σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 758 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
M4A4 | Daybreak (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 128,203$3920.0%00.0—
M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 59,612$2430.0%00.0—
M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 35,424$1940.1%00.0—
M4A4 | The Coalition (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 13,612$1350.1%00.1—
M4A4 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 7,078$1070.1%00.1—
M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 2,934$79.240.3%00.3—
M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 2,835$78.320.3%00.3—
M4A4 | X-Ray (Minimal Wear)weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 2,265$72.550.3%00.3—
M4A4 | Hellfire (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 2,256$72.450.3%30.3—
M4A4 | The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red1 in 1,204$58.500.5%00.6—
M4A4 | Modern Hunter (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 310$36.721.1%12.40.41×
M4A4 | Full Throttle (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 215$32.291.5%53.51.42×
M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 206$31.821.5%03.70.00×
M4A4 | In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 198$31.371.5%23.80.52×
M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 192$31.031.6%24.00.51×
M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 185$30.661.6%64.11.47×
M4A4 | The Battlestar (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 170$29.761.7%34.40.67×
M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 150$28.411.8%75.11.38×
M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 136$27.461.9%55.60.90×
M4A4 | Zirka (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 43$17.824.0%3117.81.75×
M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 41$17.554.1%2918.51.57×
M4A4 | Global Offensive (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 36$16.704.4%1920.90.91×
M4A4 | Falak (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 28$15.105.1%4526.71.68×
M4A4 | Hellish (Field-Tested)weapon · rare1 in 21$13.356.0%4835.51.35×
M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 17$12.026.8%5944.71.32×
M4A4 | Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 17$11.876.9%5645.91.22×
M4A4 | Desert Storm (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon1 in 10$9.288.7%073.30.00×
M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial10.4%$8.898.9%078.70.00×
M4A4 | Polysoup (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical12.2%$7.999.4%15892.61.71×
M4A4 | Tornado (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial16.1%$6.349.9%0122.10.00×
M4A4 | Spider Lily (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted18.8%$5.189.4%241142.81.69×
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
M4A4 | Hellish (Field-Tested)weapon · rareWHO&SOS$13.99$13.350.95x
M4A4 | Polysoup (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalDENNER$13.99$7.980.57x
M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedᵍiτⱥήiʞ𐍉😚$13.99$17.321.24x
M4A4 | Polysoup (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalSEvER$13.99$7.690.55x
M4A4 | Spider Lily (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedSEvER$13.99$5.200.37x
M4A4 | Polysoup (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalObito$13.99$7.660.55x
M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedObito$13.99$12.020.86x
M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested)weapon · classifieddust2 pick = troll game$13.99$12.120.87x
M4A4 | Polysoup (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalDesire*$13.99$7.940.57x
M4A4 | Hellish (Field-Tested)weapon · rareMorBat144$13.99$13.460.96x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 74.08%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC$13.9974.08%31
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC$13.9973.88%31
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC$13.9973.71%31
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC$13.9973.69%31
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC$13.9973.97%31
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC$13.9974.29%31
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC$13.9974.30%31
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC$13.9974.28%32
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC$13.9974.37%31
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC$13.9974.41%31
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC$13.9974.83%31
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$13.9974.81%31
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC$13.9974.81%31
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC$13.9974.82%31
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC$13.9974.81%31
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC$13.9974.83%31
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC$13.9974.83%31
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC$13.9974.81%32
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC$13.9974.82%32
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC$13.9974.82%31
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC$13.9974.82%32
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC$13.9974.75%31
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC$13.9974.88%31
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC$13.9975.22%31
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC$13.9975.22%31
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC$13.9975.12%31
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC$13.9974.83%31
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC$13.9974.92%31
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC$13.9974.92%31
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$13.9974.91%32
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed#8847ff 0.0%covert 1.3%red 0.6%#eb4b4b 0.0%classified 14.4%restricted 19.6%Ancient 1.8%mil spec 0.5%violet 2.3%Rare 2.8%pink 3.5%rare 4.7%Uncommon 9.7%industrial 26.5%Mythical 12.2%best hit —