MamaSwiggi
A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$2.19
Advertised RTP
73.81%
EV $1.62 from 38 items
Observed RTP, 30d
75.61%
2,535 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
27.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,535 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 73.81%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $2.19 | 73.81% | 38 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $2.19 | 73.66% | 38 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $2.19 | 73.52% | 38 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $2.19 | 73.47% | 38 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $2.19 | 73.78% | 38 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $2.19 | 74.10% | 38 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $2.19 | 74.07% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $2.19 | 74.20% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $2.19 | 74.17% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $2.19 | 74.19% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.19 | 74.64% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $2.19 | 74.62% | 38 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $2.19 | 74.60% | 38 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $2.19 | 74.58% | 38 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $2.19 | 74.60% | 38 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $2.19 | 74.57% | 38 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.19 | 74.60% | 38 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.19 | 74.56% | 38 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $2.19 | 74.59% | 38 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $2.19 | 74.62% | 38 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $2.19 | 74.68% | 38 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $2.19 | 74.61% | 38 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.19 | 74.72% | 38 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $2.19 | 74.96% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $2.19 | 75.08% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $2.19 | 74.93% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $2.19 | 74.76% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $2.19 | 74.77% | 38 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.19 | 74.71% | 38 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $2.19 | 74.70% | 38 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%classified 6.0%sunny 0.0%Extraordinary 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%Ancient 0.0%Legendary 5.4%#d32ee6 0.1%pink 0.8%violet 1.9%#8847ff 49.5%Mythical 17.9%restricted 18.5%best hit —