Mecha Industries mining
A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.14
Advertised RTP
65.04%
EV $0.09 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
6094.53%
922 openings, odds method
Variance
79.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 93
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
98.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 65.89% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (6036.29% – 6152.77%, 922 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 923 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 9,883 | $107 | 11.9% | 11 | 0.1 | — |
| FAMAS | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 4,689 | $23.49 | 5.5% | 35 | 0.2 | — |
| Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 95 | $5.18 | 59.6% | 195 | 9.7 | 20.17× |
| SSG 08 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 66.8% | $0.03 | 20.5% | 0 | 616.7 | 0.00× |
| AUG | Commando Company (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d9 | 20.0% | <$0.01 | 1.8% | 0 | 184.9 | 0.00× |
| Tec-9 | Army Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 12.1% | <$0.01 | 0.7% | 0 | 111.5 | 0.00× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 65.04%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.14 | 65.04% | 6 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.14 | 64.62% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.14 | 64.98% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.14 | 65.36% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.14 | 65.44% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.14 | 65.48% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.14 | 65.55% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.14 | 65.43% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.14 | 65.35% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.14 | 65.96% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.14 | 65.85% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.14 | 65.81% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.14 | 66.06% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.14 | 65.99% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.14 | 65.97% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.14 | 66.00% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.14 | 66.02% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.14 | 66.15% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.14 | 66.05% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.14 | 66.11% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.14 | 66.05% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.14 | 65.84% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.14 | 66.26% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.14 | 66.35% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.14 | 66.15% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.14 | 66.14% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.14 | 65.87% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.14 | 66.04% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.14 | 66.03% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $0.14 | 66.03% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%classified 0.0%Legendary 1.0%consumer 78.9%#b0c3d9 20.0%best hit $107 (766.7x)