Neon Rider mining
A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.21
Advertised RTP
65.34%
EV $0.14 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
54771.40%
288 openings, odds method
Variance
290.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 1,008
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 288 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 288 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,008 | $114 | 82.2% | 283 | 0.3 | — |
| CZ75-Auto | Pink Pearl (Well-Worn)weapon · Common | 33.2% | $0.03 | 7.3% | 0 | 95.6 | 0.00× |
| P250 | Copper Oxide (Well-Worn)weapon · #b0c3d9 | 31.9% | $0.03 | 6.8% | 0 | 92.0 | 0.00× |
| SSG 08 | Blue Spruce (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 21.9% | $0.02 | 3.2% | 0 | 63.1 | 0.00× |
| M249 | Sage Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d9 | 1 in 16 | <$0.01 | 0.3% | 0 | 18.5 | 0.00× |
| Sawed-Off | Runoff (Minimal Wear)weapon · Common | 1 in 16 | <$0.01 | 0.3% | 0 | 18.5 | 0.00× |
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 65.34%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.21 | 65.34% | 6 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.21 | 65.12% | 6 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.21 | 64.84% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.21 | 64.96% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.21 | 65.22% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.21 | 65.37% | 6 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.21 | 65.43% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.21 | 65.45% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.21 | 65.50% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.21 | 65.44% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.21 | 65.92% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.21 | 65.90% | 6 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.21 | 65.90% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.21 | 65.97% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.21 | 65.88% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.21 | 65.91% | 6 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.21 | 65.94% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.21 | 65.94% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.21 | 66.02% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.21 | 65.98% | 6 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.21 | 65.99% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.21 | 65.94% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.21 | 65.94% | 6 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.21 | 66.27% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.21 | 66.30% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.21 | 66.15% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.21 | 66.03% | 6 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.21 | 65.94% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.21 | 66.02% | 6 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.21 | 66.03% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%Common 39.6%#b0c3d9 38.4%consumer 21.9%best hit $118 (560.4x)