PREDATOR

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$6.09

Advertised RTP

76.25%

EV $4.64 from 39 items

Observed RTP, 30d

76.63%

1,140 openings, odds method

Variance

1.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

26.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

86.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

80.34%±14.97203 openings

7 days

76.66%±7.04973 openings

30 days

76.63%±6.521,140 openings

since tracking started

76.63%±6.521,140 openings

64.5%80.3%96.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	203	80.34%±15.0	+0.5σ	odds
7d	973	76.66%±7.04	−0.1σ	odds
30d	1,140	76.63%±6.52	−0.1σ	odds
All	1,140	76.63%±6.52	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,140 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 198,411	$1,149	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 187,611	$569	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 187,218	$563	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 181,200	$489	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 175,206	$441	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 98,121	$227	0.0%	0	0.0	—
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 84,804	$208	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 58,074	$171	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 47,967	$156	0.1%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 19,715	$110	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 19,179	$109	0.1%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 18,559	$107	0.1%	1	0.1	—
FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 15,130	$99.71	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Jaguar (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 14,162	$97.36	0.1%	1	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 13,326	$95.26	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 12,795	$93.88	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 3,782	$61.45	0.3%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 3,722	$61.12	0.4%	1	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,966	$56.56	0.4%	0	0.4	—
★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,442	$52.94	0.5%	1	0.5	—
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,197	$41.54	0.7%	0	1.0	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,058	$39.83	0.8%	0	1.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,007	$39.17	0.8%	1	1.1	0.88×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 890	$37.55	0.9%	0	1.3	0.00×
★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 701	$34.62	1.1%	1	1.6	0.62×
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 635	$33.46	1.1%	1	1.8	0.56×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 594	$32.71	1.2%	3	1.9	1.56×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 550	$31.85	1.2%	0	2.1	0.00×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 495	$30.73	1.3%	1	2.3	0.43×
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 482	$30.45	1.4%	1	2.4	0.42×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 403	$28.62	1.5%	3	2.8	1.06×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 40	$12.50	6.7%	5	28.4	0.18×
P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 38	$12.23	6.9%	28	30.0	0.93×
AUG \| Syd Mead (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 31	$11.32	7.8%	33	36.5	0.90×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 31	$11.22	7.9%	48	37.3	1.29×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	13.2%	$5.74	16.3%	169	150.4	1.12×
Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	24.3%	$2.93	15.3%	284	276.5	1.03×
AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	24.8%	$2.38	12.7%	272	282.2	0.96×
Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	24.3%	$2.11	11.1%	54	277.3	0.19×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Worm God (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff002$6.09$2.340.38x5m

M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · pinkThe Lupa$6.09$10.711.76x7m

AUG | Syd Mead (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary99$6.09$11.401.87x15m

Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedСырок$6.09$11.451.88x17m

AWP | Worm God (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ffСырок$6.09$2.390.39x17m

Five-SeveN | Boost Protocol (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffSYND1CAT$6.09$2.970.49x21m

★ Moto Gloves | Transport (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinarySYND1CAT$6.09$34.705.70x21m

AWP | Worm God (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ffP1NKMAN$6.09$2.390.39x21m

Tec-9 | Remote Control (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkP1NKMAN$6.09$2.360.39x21m

AWP | Worm God (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ffP1NKMAN$6.09$2.390.39x21m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.25%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$6.09	76.25%	39
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$6.09	76.06%	39
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$6.09	76.11%	39
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$6.09	76.37%	39
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$6.09	76.72%	38
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$6.09	76.75%	38
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$6.09	76.71%	38
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$6.09	76.73%	39
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$6.09	76.81%	39
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$6.09	77.26%	39
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$6.09	77.23%	39
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$6.09	77.21%	39
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$6.09	77.27%	39
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$6.09	77.28%	39
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$6.09	77.27%	39
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$6.09	77.26%	39
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$6.09	77.22%	39
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$6.09	77.26%	39
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$6.09	77.26%	38
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$6.09	77.27%	38
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$6.09	77.22%	39
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$6.09	77.30%	38
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$6.09	77.68%	39
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$6.09	77.64%	39
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$6.09	77.56%	39
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$6.09	77.30%	38
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$6.09	77.33%	39
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$6.09	77.35%	39
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$6.09	77.36%	39
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$6.09	77.35%	39

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.9%rare 0.0%extraordinary 0.2%sunny 0.0%covert knife 0.0%red 0.2%Ancient 0.5%classified 5.1%Legendary 3.2%pink 27.6%#d32ee6 13.2%#8847ff 49.0%best hit —