Red Bull
A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 8 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$1.69
Advertised RTP
72.96%
EV $1.23 from 30 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.12%
4,542 openings, odds method
Variance
1.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 73.27% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (76.07% – 82.17%, 4,542 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,888 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 72.96%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $1.69 | 72.96% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $1.69 | 72.75% | 30 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $1.69 | 72.62% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $1.69 | 72.59% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $1.69 | 72.99% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $1.69 | 73.32% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $1.69 | 73.27% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $1.69 | 73.26% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $1.69 | 73.27% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $1.69 | 73.31% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $1.69 | 73.77% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $1.69 | 73.71% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $1.69 | 73.84% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $1.69 | 73.75% | 30 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%Immortal 0.0%red 0.0%classified 1.2%pink 0.7%Legendary 0.5%restricted 0.0%violet 22.9%Mythical 2.4%Rare 28.3%#8847ff 30.3%mil spec 13.5%best hit —