Красная коллекция

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.09

Advertised RTP

58.29%

EV $0.05 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.30%

3,574 openings, odds method

Variance

0.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

32.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

91.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

85.86%±5.18374 openings

7 days

86.40%±1.813,010 openings

30 days

84.30%±1.673,574 openings

since tracking started

84.30%±1.673,574 openings

57.5%74.5%91.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 59.02% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (82.63% – 85.97%, 3,574 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	374	85.86%±5.18	+10.4σ	odds
7d	3,010	86.40%±1.81	+29.7σ	odds
30d	3,574	84.30%±1.67	+29.6σ	odds
All	3,574	84.30%±1.67	+29.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,575 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 184,703	$4.26	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Charm \| Lil' Herocharm · #d32ce6	1 in 181,252	$3.96	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 158,690	$2.91	0.0%	0	0.0	—
CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 153,299	$2.76	0.0%	0	0.0	—
MAC-10 \| Heat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 138,594	$2.44	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 112,779	$2.02	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 80,163	$1.62	0.0%	1	0.0	—
MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 28,614	$1.02	0.1%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 28,761	$1.02	0.1%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 16,562	$0.83	0.1%	0	0.2	—
P250 \| Vino Primo (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 13,770	$0.78	0.1%	1	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 9,503	$0.68	0.1%	2	0.4	—
Charm \| Glamour Shotcharm · uncommon	1 in 6,343	$0.59	0.2%	5	0.6	—
MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,059	$0.51	0.2%	4	0.9	—
Galil AR \| Signal (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,104	$0.51	0.2%	2	0.9	—
P2000 \| Imperial (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 1,936	$0.40	0.4%	4	1.8	2.17×
MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 1,317	$0.35	0.5%	8	2.7	2.95×
MP7 \| Mischief (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,068	$0.32	0.6%	3	3.3	0.90×
Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 882	$0.30	0.7%	12	4.1	2.96×
Tec-9 \| Snek-9 (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 518	$0.25	0.9%	6	6.9	0.87×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 265	$0.20	1.4%	25	13.5	1.85×
MAC-10 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · 2	1 in 108	$0.15	2.6%	0	33.2	0.00×
P250 \| Red Tide (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 78	$0.13	3.2%	71	46.1	1.54×
MP9 \| Black Sand (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 36	$0.10	5.3%	76	99.7	0.76×
Sawed-Off \| Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 35	$0.10	5.3%	74	102.2	0.72×
M4A4 \| Zubastick (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 21	$0.08	7.3%	174	169.0	1.03×
Charm \| Lil' Cap Guncharm · Rare	1 in 16	$0.07	8.6%	324	223.2	1.45×
MAC-10 \| Light Box (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 15	$0.07	8.9%	277	235.6	1.18×
P250 \| Cassette (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 15	$0.07	8.8%	286	232.0	1.23×
PP-Bizon \| Runic (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 14	$0.07	9.4%	304	255.9	1.19×
MAG-7 \| Insomnia (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 12	$0.06	10.4%	536	305.9	1.75×
MP5-SD \| Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 11	$0.06	10.5%	684	317.5	2.15×
Tec-9 \| Groundwater (Well-Worn)weapon · Common	42.5%	$0.02	13.8%	0	1518.7	0.00×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blue(#\\™//#)$0.09$0.111.20xnow

MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffkaurka$0.09$0.060.71x13m

M4A4 | Zubastick (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec1shot ♛$0.09$0.091.01x17m

MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare4ETAKOE$0.09$0.070.76x23m

MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff4ETAKOE$0.09$0.060.71x23m

MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare✪ InF'Sharoo ︻デ一$0.09$0.070.76x26m

M4A4 | Zubastick (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecレジェンド$0.09$0.091.01x33m

MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffpos1$0.09$0.060.71x40m

Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blueMax$0.09$0.111.19x41m

MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)weapon · Rarepos1$0.09$0.070.76x42m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 58.29%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.09	58.29%	33
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.09	58.18%	35
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.09	58.21%	34
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.09	58.32%	35
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.09	58.71%	36
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.09	58.77%	35
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.09	58.68%	34
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.09	58.82%	35
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.09	58.97%	33
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.09	59.29%	34
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.09	59.20%	34
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.09	59.21%	34
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0.09	58.99%	35
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.09	59.11%	34
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.09	59.05%	34
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.09	59.25%	34
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.09	59.08%	33
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.09	59.17%	36
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.09	58.86%	35
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.09	58.97%	33
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.09	59.22%	33
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.09	59.40%	35
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.09	59.36%	34
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0.09	58.94%	35
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.09	59.23%	34
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$0.09	59.14%	33
4 Nov, 08:09 UTC	$0.09	59.05%	33
4 Nov, 07:05 UTC	$0.09	59.22%	33
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$0.09	59.27%	35
3 Nov, 15:56 UTC	$0.09	59.53%	34

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed2 0.9%classified 0.0%#d32ce6 0.0%pink 0.0%#4b69ff 27.5%#8847ff 0.0%Rare 12.8%restricted 0.1%mil spec 0.7%violet 0.1%Mythical 0.0%uncommon 0.0%blue 4.2%milspec 11.2%Common 42.5%best hit —