RespinnersTV
A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$4.79
Advertised RTP
75.56%
EV $3.62 from 29 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.99%
1,109 openings, odds method
Variance
3.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
31.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 76.29% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (78.09% – 99.90%, 1,109 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,110 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.56%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $4.79 | 75.56% | 29 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $4.79 | 75.37% | 29 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $4.79 | 75.20% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $4.79 | 75.20% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $4.79 | 75.48% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $4.79 | 75.82% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $4.79 | 75.84% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $4.79 | 75.85% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $4.79 | 75.84% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $4.79 | 75.89% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $4.79 | 76.32% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $4.79 | 76.32% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $4.79 | 76.28% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $4.79 | 76.37% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $4.79 | 76.38% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $4.79 | 76.37% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $4.79 | 76.37% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $4.79 | 76.35% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $4.79 | 76.33% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $4.79 | 76.34% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $4.79 | 76.36% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $4.79 | 76.29% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $4.79 | 76.42% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $4.79 | 76.75% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $4.79 | 76.76% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $4.79 | 76.67% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $4.79 | 76.34% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $4.79 | 76.46% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $4.79 | 76.43% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $4.79 | 76.44% | 28 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%gold 0.0%sunny 0.0%Immortal 0.0%red 0.1%classified 17.8%restricted 19.0%Legendary 25.9%#d32ce6 11.0%Classified 7.5%Mythical 18.6%best hit $889 (185.7x)