Runah

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$1.79

Advertised RTP

65.61%

EV $1.17 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

156.28%

934 openings, odds method

Variance

47.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 274

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

99.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

151 openings · below min

7 days

782 openings · below min

30 days

934 openings · below min

since tracking started

934 openings · below min

65.0%258.3%451.5%

Small sample. 934 openings and 4.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	151	341.04%±109.9	—	odds
7d	782	140.42%±48.3	—	odds
30d	934	156.28%±44.2	—	odds
All	934	156.28%±44.2	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 934 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 8,377	$534	5.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,258	$205	7.7%	3	0.4	—
Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,067	$197	8.1%	0	0.5	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,597	$177	9.5%	2	0.6	—
★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 507	$116	19.5%	6	1.8	3.26×
★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 196	$83.52	36.2%	7	4.8	1.47×
CZ75-Auto \| Distressed (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	43.0%	$0.27	10.0%	293	401.3	0.73×
M4A4 \| Choppa (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	13.6%	$0.09	1.0%	120	126.7	0.95×
MP5-SD \| Focus (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	12.3%	$0.08	0.8%	37	115.3	0.32×
MAG-7 \| MAGnitude (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	12.0%	$0.08	0.8%	73	111.6	0.65×
SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	10.4%	$0.07	0.6%	18	97.1	0.19×
P250 \| Re.built (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 13	$0.05	0.3%	61	73.8	0.83×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified4u_4u_ga_ga$1.79$238132.7x5d

AK-47 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedВыношу мусор$1.79$205114.4x4h

AK-47 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedRunah$1.79$204114.1x19h

★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$$$$1.79$17899.38x8d

★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryZipper$1.79$16793.41x7d

★ Flip Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covertRunah$1.79$11966.31x17h

★ Flip Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covertXl1ca$1.79$11564.32x1d

★ Flip Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covertZipper$1.79$11161.75x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ffsanti$1.79$0.270.15x4h

MP5-SD | Focus (Well-Worn)weapon · bluesanti$1.79$0.080.04x4h

MP5-SD | Focus (Well-Worn)weapon · blueВыношу мусор$1.79$0.080.04x4h

CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ffВыношу мусор$1.79$0.270.15x4h

AK-47 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedВыношу мусор$1.79$205114.4x4h

CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ffВыношу мусор$1.79$0.270.15x4h

M4A4 | Choppa (Field-Tested)weapon · blueВыношу мусор$1.79$0.090.05x4h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 65.61%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$1.79	65.61%	12
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$1.79	65.46%	12
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$1.79	65.45%	12
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$1.79	65.69%	12
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$1.79	65.97%	12
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$1.79	66.00%	12
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$1.79	65.98%	12
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$1.79	66.04%	12
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$1.79	66.09%	12
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$1.79	66.46%	12
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$1.79	66.43%	12
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$1.79	66.42%	12
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$1.79	66.45%	12
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$1.79	66.45%	12
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$1.79	66.45%	12
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$1.79	66.47%	12
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$1.79	66.44%	12
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$1.79	66.43%	12
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$1.79	66.44%	12
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$1.79	66.46%	12
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$1.79	66.41%	12
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$1.79	66.51%	12
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$1.79	66.81%	12
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$1.79	66.82%	12
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$1.79	66.73%	12
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$1.79	66.45%	12
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$1.79	66.54%	12
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$1.79	66.54%	12
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$1.79	66.54%	12
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$1.79	66.52%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert knife 0.0%classified 0.1%extraordinary 0.6%covert 0.2%#4b69ff 50.9%blue 25.9%Rare 12.0%milspec 10.4%best hit $238 (132.7x)