Seyka

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$2.19

Advertised RTP

73.68%

EV $1.61 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d

74.49%

1,863 openings, odds method

Variance

0.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

35.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

89.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

71.17%±9.11214 openings

7 days

74.11%±3.591,615 openings

30 days

74.49%±3.341,863 openings

since tracking started

74.49%±3.341,863 openings

61.5%71.3%81.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	214	71.17%±9.11	−0.6σ	odds
7d	1,615	74.11%±3.59	−0.2σ	odds
30d	1,863	74.49%±3.34	−0.1σ	odds
All	1,863	74.49%±3.34	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,863 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 191,461	$177	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 189,951	$167	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 185,606	$147	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 172,429	$116	0.0%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 168,520	$110	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 164,629	$105	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 135,455	$80.39	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 110,028	$67.14	0.0%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 95,503	$60.93	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 75,237	$53.04	0.0%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 74,281	$52.68	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 52,652	$44.54	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Needle Point (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 47,715	$42.63	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 44,946	$41.54	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 36,894	$38.24	0.1%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 24,830	$32.71	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 23,148	$31.85	0.1%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 5,431	$18.99	0.2%	0	0.3	—
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 4,424	$17.70	0.2%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 3,037	$15.56	0.3%	3	0.6	—
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,424	$12.02	0.5%	1	1.3	0.76×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,405	$11.97	0.5%	4	1.3	3.02×
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 162	$5.68	2.2%	23	11.5	2.00×
AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 47	$3.58	4.8%	78	40.0	1.95×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 40	$3.37	5.2%	58	46.5	1.25×
Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 19	$2.44	8.1%	62	99.3	0.62×
AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 15	$2.16	9.2%	131	127.5	1.03×
CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$2.09	9.5%	125	136.0	0.92×
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	10.5%	$1.70	11.1%	217	196.4	1.10×
AUG \| Random Access (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	12.1%	$1.56	11.7%	26	224.7	0.12×
SG 553 \| Triarch (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	16.1%	$1.22	12.2%	214	300.1	0.71×
CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	17.9%	$1.07	11.9%	238	333.6	0.71×
Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	18.4%	$1.02	11.6%	123	342.9	0.36×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SG 553 | Triarch (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedЖулик$2.19$1.220.56x14s

SG 553 | Triarch (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedMarka$2.19$1.210.55x37m

M4A1-S | Night Terrorweapon · violetDRAGon$2.19$0.760.35x51m

CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffkray_$2.19$1.170.53x1h

CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffgxx-$2.19$1.170.53x1h

M4A1-S | Night Terrorweapon · violetGangbang$2.19$0.760.35x1h

SG 553 | Triarch (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedWolf$2.19$1.210.55x2h

M4A1-S | Night Terrorweapon · violetWolf$2.19$0.760.35x2h

Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedWolf$2.19$1.700.78x2h

M4A1-S | Night Terrorweapon · violetWolf$2.19$0.760.35x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 73.68%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$2.19	73.68%	33
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$2.19	73.47%	34
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$2.19	73.52%	34
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$2.19	73.84%	34
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$2.19	74.19%	34
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$2.19	74.15%	34
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$2.19	74.14%	34
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$2.19	74.14%	34
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$2.19	74.21%	35
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$2.19	74.67%	35
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$2.19	74.57%	35
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$2.19	74.60%	35
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$2.19	74.64%	35
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$2.19	74.64%	35
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$2.19	74.63%	35
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$2.19	74.70%	35
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$2.19	74.59%	35
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$2.19	74.61%	34
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$2.19	74.64%	34
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$2.19	74.70%	34
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$2.19	74.57%	34
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$2.19	74.75%	34
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$2.19	75.05%	34
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$2.19	75.05%	34
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$2.19	74.89%	34
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$2.19	74.77%	34
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$2.19	74.76%	34
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$2.19	74.71%	34
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$2.19	74.75%	34
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$2.19	74.79%	34

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%red 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%Ancient 0.0%classified 4.9%Legendary 0.6%mil spec 23.7%#8847ff 24.8%restricted 34.0%Mythical 12.1%best hit —