Price
$109.00
Advertised RTP
72.62%
EV $79.15 from 31 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.43%
317 openings, odds method
Variance
0.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
31.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 318 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 72.62%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $109 | 72.62% | 31 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $109 | 72.45% | 31 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $109 | 72.44% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $109 | 72.72% | 31 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $109 | 73.03% | 30 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $109 | 73.04% | 31 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $109 | 73.03% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $109 | 73.09% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $109 | 73.15% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $109 | 73.56% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $109 | 73.53% | 30 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $109 | 73.52% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $109 | 73.55% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $109 | 73.55% | 30 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $109 | 73.55% | 31 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $109 | 73.56% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $109 | 73.53% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $109 | 73.54% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $109 | 73.55% | 30 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $109 | 73.55% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $109 | 73.49% | 31 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $109 | 73.60% | 30 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $109 | 73.94% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $109 | 73.95% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $109 | 73.86% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $109 | 73.56% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $109 | 73.65% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $109 | 73.64% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $109 | 73.65% | 30 |
| 4 Nov, 14:19 UTC | $109 | 73.62% | 30 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 22.6%gold 6.4%classified 19.7%extraordinary 15.5%sunny 0.0%restricted 15.6%#8847ff 7.7%Ancient 12.3%best hit $759 (6.97x)