The Harlequin Collection

A case on csgo.net (Collection), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.80

Advertised RTP

78.70%

EV $0.63 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d

120.56%

787 openings, odds method

Variance

1.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

40.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

59.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

12 openings · below min

7 days

124.44%±8.46588 openings

30 days

120.56%±7.33787 openings

since tracking started

120.56%±7.33787 openings

63.5%122.5%181.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 79.47% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (113.24% – 127.89%, 787 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	12	122.51%±58.5	—	odds
7d	588	124.44%±8.46	+10.4σ	odds
30d	787	120.56%±7.33	+11.0σ	odds
All	787	120.56%±7.33	+11.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 787 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 198	$7.26	5.8%	12	4.0	3.02×
AWP \| Exothermic (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 10	$2.32	35.3%	107	75.5	1.42×
USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	30.3%	$0.96	46.1%	381	238.2	1.60×
Galil AR \| Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	13.1%	$0.17	3.7%	90	103.4	0.87×
Five-SeveN \| Fraise Crane (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	13.1%	$0.17	3.7%	61	103.4	0.59×
Zeus x27 \| Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	11.1%	$0.14	2.5%	63	87.1	0.72×
UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	10.9%	$0.14	2.5%	72	85.9	0.84×
XM1014 \| XoooM (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 38	$0.03	0.1%	0	20.7	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Calligrafaux (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 46	$0.03	0.1%	0	17.2	0.00×
MP7 \| Coral Paisley (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 81	$0.02	0.0%	0	9.7	0.00×
MP5-SD \| Picnic (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 83	$0.01	0.0%	0	9.5	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Banana Leaf (Field-Tested)weapon · light blue	1 in 96	$0.01	0.0%	0	8.2	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Crimson Batik (Minimal Wear)weapon · grey	1 in 220	<$0.01	0.0%	0	3.6	0.00×
SG 553 \| Safari Print (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 220	<$0.01	0.0%	0	3.6	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Mauve Aside (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 220	<$0.01	0.0%	0	3.6	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Thermal Currents (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	1 in 220	<$0.01	0.0%	0	3.6	0.00×
MP9 \| Bee-Tron (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 220	<$0.01	0.0%	0	3.6	0.00×
FAMAS \| Byproduct (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 249	<$0.01	0.0%	0	3.2	0.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Honey Paisley (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 249	<$0.01	0.0%	0	3.2	0.00×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffI9$0.80$0.160.20x3h

AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedHypE$0.80$2.312.89x6h

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)weapon · blueFurgonzil$0.80$0.140.18x19h

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)weapon · blue✁ barba ✁$0.80$0.140.18x22h

USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff✁ barba ✁$0.80$0.951.19x22h

AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted✁ barba ✁$0.80$2.352.94x22h

USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff✁ barba ✁$0.80$0.951.19x22h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 78.70%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:55 UTC	$0.80	78.70%	19
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.80	78.28%	19
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.80	78.09%	19
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.80	78.11%	19
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.80	78.65%	19
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.80	79.09%	19
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.80	79.11%	19
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.80	78.80%	19
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.80	78.97%	19
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.80	78.89%	19
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.80	79.58%	19
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.80	79.47%	19
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.80	79.53%	19
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0.80	79.52%	19
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.80	79.49%	19
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.80	79.33%	19
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.80	79.69%	19
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.80	79.57%	19
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.80	79.28%	19
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0.80	79.22%	19
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.80	79.42%	19
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.80	79.38%	19
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.80	79.49%	19
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.80	79.79%	19
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.80	79.80%	19
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.80	79.71%	19
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0.80	79.58%	19
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0.80	79.59%	19
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.80	79.61%	19
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.80	79.55%	19

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 0.5%restricted 9.6%#8847ff 30.3%#4b69ff 37.4%blue 10.9%#5e98d9 2.6%Uncommon 3.4%industrial 1.2%light blue 1.0%grey 0.5%#b0c3d9 2.2%consumer 0.5%best hit —