UFC 329: Макгрегор

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$0.13

Advertised RTP

73.67%

EV $0.10 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d

80.17%

864 openings, odds method

Variance

0.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

28.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

79.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

95 openings · below min

7 days

79.95%±5.94714 openings

30 days

80.17%±5.40864 openings

since tracking started

80.17%±5.40864 openings

56.5%75.0%93.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 74.56% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (74.78% – 85.57%, 864 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	95	75.15%±17.8	—	odds
7d	714	79.95%±5.94	+1.8σ	odds
30d	864	80.17%±5.40	+2.0σ	odds
All	864	80.17%±5.40	+2.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 872 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 9,809	$5.18	0.6%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 9,673	$4.31	0.5%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 9,250	$3.22	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 9,011	$2.91	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 7,780	$2.11	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 7,390	$1.97	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 6,675	$1.75	0.3%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 5,253	$1.44	0.3%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,939	$1.20	0.3%	1	0.2	—
MP9 \| Goo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 3,502	$1.13	0.3%	1	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,329	$1.10	0.3%	0	0.3	—
USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 2,467	$0.95	0.4%	0	0.4	—
UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 726	$0.59	0.8%	3	1.2	2.50×
MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 566	$0.54	1.0%	1	1.5	0.65×
Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 454	$0.49	1.1%	5	1.9	2.60×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 337	$0.44	1.4%	7	2.6	2.71×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 167	$0.34	2.1%	5	5.2	0.96×
P90 \| Neoqueen (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 128	$0.31	2.5%	12	6.8	1.76×
Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 120	$0.30	2.6%	10	7.3	1.37×
Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Field-Tested)weapon · common	1 in 32	$0.18	5.7%	18	26.9	0.67×
Charm \| Lil' Tuskcharm · #4b69ff	1 in 31	$0.18	5.9%	56	27.8	2.01×
USP-S \| PC-GRN (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 19	$0.14	7.5%	9	44.8	0.20×
M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 18	$0.13	7.7%	59	48.1	1.23×
AK-47 \| Olive Polycam (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 12	$0.10	8.8%	0	70.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Zubastick (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	10.6%	$0.08	9.0%	61	92.6	0.66×
MAC-10 \| Light Box (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	11.7%	$0.07	8.6%	76	101.6	0.75×
Charm \| Backsplashcharm · #4b69ff	11.9%	$0.07	8.5%	106	104.2	1.02×
MP5-SD \| Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	12.3%	$0.06	8.0%	95	107.5	0.88×
Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	12.5%	$0.06	7.8%	111	108.7	1.02×
Tec-9 \| Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	12.7%	$0.05	6.6%	53	111.0	0.48×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Field-Tested)weapon · RareKatakia$0.13$0.060.43x9m

Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Field-Tested)weapon · commonKatakia$0.13$0.181.37x9m

UMP-45 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedKatakia$0.13$0.594.54x9m

Charm | Backsplashcharm · #4b69ffKatakia$0.13$0.070.52x9m

M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)weapon · RareKatakia$0.13$0.131.03x9m

Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Field-Tested)weapon · RareKatakia$0.13$0.060.43x9m

Tec-9 | Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffKatakia$0.13$0.050.38x9m

M4A4 | Zubastick (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecKatakia$0.13$0.080.63x9m

MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffKatakia$0.13$0.060.49x9m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 73.67%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$0.13	73.67%	30
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$0.13	73.38%	30
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$0.13	73.28%	30
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$0.13	73.65%	29
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$0.13	74.14%	29
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$0.13	74.03%	29
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$0.13	73.91%	29
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$0.13	74.16%	29
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$0.13	74.17%	29
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$0.13	74.76%	29
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.13	74.56%	29
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$0.13	74.56%	29
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$0.13	74.54%	29
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$0.13	74.52%	29
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$0.13	74.53%	29
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.13	74.65%	29
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.13	74.72%	29
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$0.13	74.61%	29
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$0.13	74.66%	29
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$0.13	74.74%	29
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$0.13	74.46%	29
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$0.13	74.69%	30
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$0.13	74.97%	29
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$0.13	75.01%	29
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$0.13	74.83%	28
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$0.13	74.57%	29
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$0.13	74.59%	29
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$0.13	74.69%	29
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.13	74.68%	29
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$0.13	74.63%	29

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedLegendary 0.0%classified 0.0%pink 0.0%Mythical 0.0%Rare 29.6%#8847ff 0.1%restricted 0.4%violet 1.3%blue 0.6%#4b69ff 46.2%common 3.1%Uncommon 8.1%milspec 10.6%best hit —