Согревающий плед

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$13.99

Advertised RTP

73.87%

EV $10.34 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d

75.29%

3,615 openings, odds method

Variance

0.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

38.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

84.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

81.15%±7.63368 openings

7 days

75.62%±2.922,595 openings

30 days

75.29%±2.463,615 openings

since tracking started

75.29%±2.463,615 openings

72.0%80.8%89.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	368	81.15%±7.63	+1.9σ	odds
7d	2,595	75.62%±2.92	+0.6σ	odds
30d	3,615	75.29%±2.46	+0.4σ	odds
All	3,615	75.29%±2.46	+0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,621 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Occult (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary	1 in 9,698	$431	0.4%	0	0.4	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 9,460	$353	0.4%	0	0.4	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 9,408	$341	0.4%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Jet Set (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 9,341	$329	0.3%	1	0.4	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Leather (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 8,478	$241	0.3%	1	0.4	—
Glock-18 \| Ghost Protocol (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 6,405	$164	0.2%	0	0.6	—
M4A4 \| The Coalition (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 5,020	$136	0.3%	0	0.7	—
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,510	$93.88	0.4%	2	1.4	1.39×
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,385	$91.77	0.4%	2	1.5	1.32×
AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 2,016	$85.35	0.4%	2	1.8	1.11×
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,509	$75.79	0.5%	2	2.4	0.83×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,044	$65.68	0.6%	3	3.5	0.86×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 700	$56.56	0.8%	7	5.2	1.35×
AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 461	$48.57	1.0%	14	7.9	1.78×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 152	$32.43	2.1%	24	23.9	1.01×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 118	$29.56	2.4%	21	30.7	0.69×
AUG \| Lil' Pig (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 49	$21.05	4.1%	64	73.7	0.87×
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 40	$19.36	4.7%	105	90.3	1.16×
MAC-10 \| Toybox (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 26	$15.87	6.0%	122	141.8	0.86×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 23	$15.01	6.4%	155	159.4	0.97×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 15	$12.02	7.8%	222	243.4	0.91×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 13	$11.22	8.2%	321	273.2	1.17×
PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 11	$10.11	8.6%	248	319.4	0.78×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	10.6%	$8.77	9.0%	167	383.0	0.44×
AWP \| The End (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	11.1%	$8.35	9.0%	356	403.7	0.88×
Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	12.1%	$7.69	9.0%	381	436.6	0.87×
FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	13.7%	$6.42	8.5%	471	494.8	0.95×
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	14.4%	$5.68	7.9%	459	520.1	0.88×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · LegendaryDin Djarin$13.99$5.690.41x1m

AWP | The End (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkSAKURA$13.99$8.780.63x2m

AWP | The End (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkMarinette$13.99$8.780.63x4m

MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · LegendaryDin Djarin$13.99$5.690.41x4m

M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · pinkMarinette$13.99$10.710.77x4m

SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedluc1us$13.99$8.950.64x5m

Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified🩶L,E,K,A🩶$13.99$18.961.36x31m

AWP | The End (Field-Tested)weapon · pink🩶L,E,K,A🩶$13.99$8.360.60x32m

Glock-18 | Ramese's Reach (Field-Tested)weapon · violetnewbie$13.99$7.690.55x43m

FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink🩶L,E,K,A🩶$13.99$6.380.46x58m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 73.87%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$13.99	73.87%	28
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$13.99	73.70%	28
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$13.99	73.69%	28
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$13.99	73.97%	28
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$13.99	74.30%	28
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$13.99	74.31%	28
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$13.99	74.29%	28
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$13.99	74.36%	28
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$13.99	74.41%	28
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$13.99	74.83%	28
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$13.99	74.81%	28
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$13.99	74.79%	28
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$13.99	74.81%	28
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$13.99	74.82%	28
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$13.99	74.84%	28
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$13.99	74.83%	28
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$13.99	74.80%	28
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$13.99	74.81%	28
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$13.99	74.82%	28
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$13.99	74.82%	28
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$13.99	74.76%	28
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$13.99	74.88%	28
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$13.99	75.22%	28
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$13.99	75.24%	28
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$13.99	75.14%	28
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$13.99	74.84%	28
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$13.99	74.93%	28
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$13.99	74.92%	28
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$13.99	74.91%	28
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$13.99	74.90%	28

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%covert 1.2%covert knife 0.0%classified 33.0%extraordinary 0.0%red 0.1%rare 0.2%Ancient 0.7%uncommon 2.0%pink 36.3%violet 12.1%Legendary 14.4%best hit —