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CS:GO Weapon Case 2

A case on csgo.net (Standard), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price
$20.99
Advertised RTP
73.88%
EV $15.51 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.24%
86 openings, odds method
Variance
0.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
23.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.2%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
17 openings · below min
7 days
76 openings · below min
30 days
86 openings · below min
since tracking started
86 openings · below min
65.0%113.8%162.5%

Small sample. 86 openings and 20.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h17122.60%±39.2—odds
7d7684.33%±18.5—odds
30d8688.24%±17.3—odds
All8688.24%±17.3—odds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 86 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Flip Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 2,202$2600.8%00.0—
★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 1,022$1911.2%00.1—
★ Bayonet | Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 350$1292.4%10.2—
SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 138$91.774.3%20.6—
★ Gut Knife | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 44$58.728.7%22.01.02×
USP-S | Serum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 36$53.939.7%22.40.83×
P90 | Cold Blooded (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 19$40.1713.6%84.51.78×
Tec-9 | Blue Titanium (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec12.3%$21.3717.0%410.60.38×
MP9 | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · restricted14.1%$12.0110.9%1612.11.32×
Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted14.0%$11.9410.8%1512.11.24×
Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted13.5%$10.409.0%911.60.78×
Nova | Graphite (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted11.9%$8.126.2%310.20.29×
M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 11$5.463.2%37.70.39×
SCAR-20 | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare1 in 21$2.630.8%04.00.00×
FAMAS | Hexane (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 22$2.560.7%33.90.77×
P250 | Hive (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 22$2.540.7%03.90.00×
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
FAMAS | Hexane (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffLoading...$20.99$2.560.12x
★ Gut Knife | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covertLoading...$20.99$59.272.82x
Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedLoading...$20.99$11.940.57x
P90 | Cold Blooded (Factory New)weapon · classifiedLoading...$20.99$40.231.92x
Dual Berettas | Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedLoading...$20.99$11.940.57x
Nova | Graphite (Minimal Wear)weapon · RestrictedLoading...$20.99$8.030.38x
MP9 | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · restrictedLoading...$20.99$12.610.60x
SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertLoading...$20.99$93.644.46x
USP-S | Serum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedLoading...$20.99$54.012.57x
P90 | Cold Blooded (Factory New)weapon · classifiedЗахарЗубрайло$20.99$40.171.91x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 73.88%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC$20.9973.88%16
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC$20.9973.71%16
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC$20.9973.70%16
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC$20.9973.97%16
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC$20.9974.31%16
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC$20.9974.31%16
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC$20.9974.29%16
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC$20.9974.35%16
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC$20.9974.42%16
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC$20.9974.84%16
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$20.9974.81%16
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC$20.9974.81%16
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC$20.9974.82%16
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC$20.9974.84%16
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC$20.9974.83%16
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC$20.9974.84%16
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC$20.9974.81%16
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC$20.9974.82%16
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC$20.9974.83%16
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC$20.9974.83%16
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC$20.9974.77%16
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC$20.9974.88%16
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC$20.9975.22%16
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC$20.9975.22%16
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC$20.9975.14%16
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC$20.9974.84%16
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC$20.9974.93%16
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC$20.9974.92%16
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$20.9974.93%16
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC$20.9974.91%16
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 3.4%classified 8.0%Mil Spec 12.3%restricted 41.6%Restricted 11.9%mil spec 13.5%Rare 4.7%#4b69ff 4.5%best hit —