Росомаха

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$18.99

Advertised RTP

73.49%

EV $13.96 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d

77.74%

882 openings, odds method

Variance

0.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

33.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

56 openings · below min

7 days

77.76%±5.01866 openings

30 days

77.74%±4.96882 openings

since tracking started

77.74%±4.96882 openings

45.5%65.5%85.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	56	65.44%±19.4	—	odds
7d	866	77.76%±5.01	+1.3σ	odds
30d	882	77.74%±4.96	+1.3σ	odds
All	882	77.74%±4.96	+1.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 882 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 9,709	$575	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 9,700	$569	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 9,606	$518	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Pillow Punchers (Field-Tested)gloves · Immortal	1 in 8,954	$365	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 8,606	$327	0.3%	1	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 7,167	$243	0.2%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 4,684	$171	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,391	$121	0.4%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,356	$120	0.4%	1	0.4	—
AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,306	$93.93	0.5%	2	0.7	—
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 480	$64.52	1.0%	1	1.8	0.54×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 456	$63.34	1.0%	2	1.9	1.03×
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 351	$57.58	1.2%	2	2.5	0.80×
AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 221	$48.57	1.6%	4	4.0	1.00×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 190	$45.94	1.7%	0	4.6	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 78	$32.71	3.0%	5	11.3	0.44×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 59	$29.25	3.5%	17	14.9	1.14×
USP-S \| Caiman (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 34	$23.00	4.8%	33	25.9	1.27×
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 24	$19.57	5.7%	44	36.1	1.22×
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 24	$19.25	5.8%	37	37.2	0.99×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$17.70	6.2%	4	43.4	0.09×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$15.93	6.7%	80	51.7	1.55×
P250 \| Mehndi (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 16	$15.46	6.8%	69	54.2	1.27×
Charm \| Lil' Fernocharm · #eb4b4b	1 in 13	$13.28	7.2%	67	66.8	1.00×
Desert Eagle \| Eastern Enigma (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 13	$12.73	7.3%	86	70.2	1.22×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 13	$12.70	7.3%	86	70.5	1.22×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	10.6%	$8.77	6.7%	83	93.9	0.88×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	10.8%	$8.54	6.6%	118	94.9	1.24×
P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	10.8%	$8.42	6.5%	90	95.4	0.94×
Glock-18 \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	11.2%	$7.24	5.8%	0	98.5	0.00×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Crane Flight (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkSatella$18.99$12.620.66x35m

M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn)weapon · classified🩶L,E,K,A🩶$18.99$19.221.01x1h

SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested)weapon · classifieddow$18.99$8.960.47x1h

AK-47 | Crane Flight (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkdow$18.99$12.620.66x1h

P90 | Trigon (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedMashono4ka♿$18.99$9.430.50x1h

Desert Eagle | Eastern Enigma (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkMashono4ka♿$18.99$12.760.67x1h

SSG 08 | Big Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6Mashono4ka♿$18.99$8.320.44x1h

M4A1-S | Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedMashono4ka♿$18.99$19.221.01x1h

SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedMashono4ka♿$18.99$8.960.47x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 73.49%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$18.99	73.49%	30
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$18.99	73.32%	30
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$18.99	73.31%	30
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$18.99	73.60%	30
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$18.99	73.92%	30
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$18.99	73.92%	30
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$18.99	73.91%	30
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$18.99	73.95%	30
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$18.99	74.03%	30
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$18.99	74.44%	30
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$18.99	74.42%	30
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$18.99	74.40%	30
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$18.99	74.43%	30
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$18.99	74.43%	30
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$18.99	74.43%	30
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$18.99	74.45%	30
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$18.99	74.41%	30
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$18.99	74.42%	30
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$18.99	74.44%	30
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$18.99	74.43%	30
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$18.99	74.37%	30
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$18.99	74.49%	30
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$18.99	74.82%	30
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$18.99	74.84%	30
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$18.99	74.74%	30
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$18.99	74.44%	30
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$18.99	74.53%	30
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$18.99	74.52%	30
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$18.99	74.53%	30
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$18.99	74.51%	30

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 3.4%Immortal 0.0%classified 49.7%rare 0.7%Ancient 0.3%uncommon 0.5%#eb4b4b 7.6%pink 16.0%#d32ee6 10.8%Uncommon 11.2%best hit —