zont1x
A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.
Price
$0.67
Advertised RTP
75.89%
EV $0.51 from 34 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.63%
2,420 openings, odds method
Variance
1.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
28.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,420 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.89%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:55 UTC | $0.67 | 75.89% | 34 |
| 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC | $0.67 | 75.63% | 34 |
| 11 Nov, 02:44 UTC | $0.67 | 75.47% | 34 |
| 10 Nov, 20:44 UTC | $0.67 | 75.45% | 34 |
| 10 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $0.67 | 75.78% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 08:34 UTC | $0.67 | 76.05% | 33 |
| 10 Nov, 02:24 UTC | $0.67 | 76.06% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 20:24 UTC | $0.67 | 76.11% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 14:24 UTC | $0.67 | 76.14% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 08:24 UTC | $0.67 | 76.23% | 34 |
| 9 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $0.67 | 76.59% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $0.67 | 76.62% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 00:05 UTC | $0.67 | 76.56% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 18:22 UTC | $0.67 | 76.56% | 34 |
| 8 Nov, 12:22 UTC | $0.67 | 76.52% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 06:22 UTC | $0.67 | 76.69% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.59% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.62% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 12:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.61% | 34 |
| 7 Nov, 06:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.62% | 34 |
| 7 Nov, 00:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.69% | 34 |
| 6 Nov, 18:02 UTC | $0.67 | 76.55% | 33 |
| 6 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.66% | 34 |
| 6 Nov, 05:21 UTC | $0.67 | 77.01% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 22:51 UTC | $0.67 | 77.06% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 16:41 UTC | $0.67 | 77.06% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 10:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.58% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 04:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.74% | 34 |
| 4 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $0.67 | 76.74% | 34 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $0.67 | 76.74% | 34 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%Ancient 0.0%classified 0.1%pink 0.1%restricted 14.1%Legendary 0.3%#d32ce6 0.1%#4b69ff 21.6%Mil Spec Grade 0.2%Rare 0.7%mil spec 8.1%Mythical 6.3%#8847ff 19.6%violet 14.1%uncommon 7.3%blue 7.3%best hit —