Zoid

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$47.89

47.89 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $41.91 from 25 items

Observed RTP, 30d

11.41%

37 openings, odds method

Variance

60.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 69

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

82.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

1 openings · below min

7 days

26 openings · below min

30 days

37 openings · below min

since tracking started

37 openings · below min

-0.5%763.0%1526.5%

Small sample. 37 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1	0.04%±1526.0	—	odds
7d	26	7.66%±299.3	—	odds
30d	37	11.41%±250.9	—	odds
All	37	11.41%±250.9	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 37 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 100,000	$61.4K 61,370 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$26.1K 26,054 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 1,111	$3,085 3,085 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.6%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$2,850 2,850 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 667	$1,800 1,800 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.4%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 500	$1,651 1,651 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 500	$995 995 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$725 725 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 500	$690 690 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.3%	0	0.1	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$563 563 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 500	$522 522 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knifeknife · covert	1 in 400	$400 400 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Field-Tested)gloves · epic	1 in 200	$359 359 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 500	$340 340 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 200	$235 235 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.8%	0	0.2	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 33	$200 200 CSGOBIG_COIN	14.3%	0	1.1	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Emerald)weapon · red · Emerald	1 in 200	$160 160 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.9%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 33	$107 107 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.6%	1	1.1	0.90×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 100	$98.69 98.69 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.4%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 167	$78.73 78.73 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.1%	0	0.2	—
Souvenir UMP-45 \| Fade (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$63.70 63.7 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.5%	0	0.4	—
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 33	$55.00 55 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.9%	0	1.1	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Blue (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 33	$48.33 48.33 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.5%	1	1.1	0.90×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$46.59 46.59 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.2%	1	0.7	—
Sticker \| This Is Fine (Chicken)sticker · #4b69ff	80.0%	$0.02 0.02 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	34	29.6	1.15×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=10043, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | This Is Fine (Chicken)sticker · #4b69ff$47.8947.89 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.020.02 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x7h

Sticker | This Is Fine (Chicken)sticker · #4b69ff$47.8947.89 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.020.02 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x1d

USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$47.8947.89 CSGOBIG_COIN$46.5946.59 CSGOBIG_COIN0.97x2d

Sticker | This Is Fine (Chicken)sticker · #4b69ff$47.8947.89 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.020.02 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$47.89	87.50%	25

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%extraordinary 0.5%covert 7.5%epic 0.5%red 3.5%classified 4.0%rare 1.0%industrial 3.0%#4b69ff 80.0%best hit —