Shmoney Show
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$198.60
199 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $178.71 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
187.38%
54 openings, odds method
Variance
50.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 200
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 54 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 54 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=10075, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary$199199 CSGOBIG_COIN$20K20,000 CSGOBIG_COIN100.7x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $199 | 89.98% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 1.7%covert 1.3%covert knife 2.0%remarkable 94.9%#B0C3D9 0.1%best hit $20K (100.7x)