1% Jackpot

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$29.50

29.5 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.01%

EV $26.55 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d

258.32%

224 openings, odds method

Variance

304.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 909

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

99.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

48 openings · below min

7 days

176 openings · below min

30 days

224 openings · below min

since tracking started

224 openings · below min

-0.5%252.3%505.0%

Small sample. 224 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	48	0.03%±493.4	—	odds
7d	176	246.84%±257.7	—	odds
30d	224	258.32%±228.4	—	odds
All	224	258.32%±228.4	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 224 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$34.9K 34,865 CSGOBIG_COIN	13.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 10,000	$18.7K 18,700 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 10,000	$14.6K 14,564 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.5%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 10,000	$12.8K 12,814 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.8%	1	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 5,000	$9,340 9,340 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.0%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Gungnir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$8,020 8,020 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.0%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$6,558 6,558 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Howl (Well-Worn)weapon · contraband	1 in 2,500	$4,253 4,253 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.4%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary	1 in 2,500	$3,359 3,359 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 2,000	$2,901 2,901 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 1,667	$2,434 2,434 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.5%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Medusa (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$1,899 1,899 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.0%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,111	$1,519 1,519 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.1%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,111	$1,298 1,298 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$935 935 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.5%	0	0.2	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 1,000	$851 851 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 909	$650 650 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 714	$492 492 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.6%	0	0.3	—
P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	50.0%	$0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	127	112.0	1.13×
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9	49.0%	$0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	95	109.8	0.87×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1019, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldMexi$29.5029.5 CSGOBIG_COIN$12.8K12,814 CSGOBIG_COIN434.4x3d

M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn)weapon · contraband$29.5029.5 CSGOBIG_COIN$4,2534,253 CSGOBIG_COIN144.2x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$29.5029.5 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x3h

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$29.5029.5 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x3h

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$29.5029.5 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x3h

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$29.5029.5 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x3h

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$29.5029.5 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x3h

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9zei$29.5029.5 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x3h

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$29.5029.5 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x3h

P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer$29.5029.5 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.01%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$29.50	90.01%	20

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.8%contraband 0.0%legendary 0.0%sunny 0.1%consumer 50.0%#B0C3D9 49.0%best hit $12.8K (434.4x)