Gamma

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$5.21

5.21 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

89.99%

EV $4.69 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d

58.43%

43 openings, odds method

Variance

85.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 18

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

69.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

43 openings · below min

30 days

43 openings · below min

since tracking started

43 openings · below min

-0.5%167.0%334.5%

Small sample. 43 openings and 2.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	43	58.43%±275.6	—	odds
30d	43	58.43%±275.6	—	odds
All	43	58.43%±275.6	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 43 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 10,000	$3,965 3,965 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.5%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,558 1,558 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,182 1,182 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.5%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$927 927 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 10,000	$825 825 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.8%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$758 758 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.6%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)knife · knifes	1 in 10,000	$541 541 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$485 485 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$397 397 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$329 329 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$274 274 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$220 220 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.9%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$167 167 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$133 133 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.4%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$51.23 51.23 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.5%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 20	$16.51 16.51 CSGOBIG_COIN	17.6%	1	2.1	0.47×
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)weapon · covert	10.0%	$11.29 11.29 CSGOBIG_COIN	24.1%	4	4.3	0.93×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	15.0%	$5.75 5.75 CSGOBIG_COIN	18.4%	10	6.5	1.55×
R8 Revolver \| Reboot (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$2.88 2.88 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.6%	1	0.4	—
AWP \| Phobos (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 100	$2.51 2.51 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.5%	0	0.4	—
P90 \| Chopper (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$2.11 2.11 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.5%	0	0.4	—
Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$0.86 0.86 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.9%	0	2.1	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 17	$0.83 0.83 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.1%	4	2.6	1.55×
Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 14	$0.62 0.62 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.9%	1	3.0	0.33×
AUG \| Aristocrat (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 14	$0.53 0.53 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.8%	2	3.0	0.66×
PP-Bizon \| Harvester (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 13	$0.36 0.36 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.6%	4	3.4	1.16×
Nova \| Exo (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 13	$0.26 0.26 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.4%	5	3.4	1.45×
SG 553 \| Aerial (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 20	$0.19 0.19 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	2	2.1	0.93×
P250 \| Iron Clad (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 13	$0.14 0.14 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.2%	5	3.4	1.45×
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9	12.3%	$0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.0%	4	5.3	0.76×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1040, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)weapon · covert$5.215.21 CSGOBIG_COIN$11.2911.29 CSGOBIG_COIN2.17x1d

PP-Bizon | Harvester (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff$5.215.21 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.360.36 CSGOBIG_COIN0.07x1d

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified$5.215.21 CSGOBIG_COIN$16.5116.51 CSGOBIG_COIN3.17x1d

Nova | Exo (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$5.215.21 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.260.26 CSGOBIG_COIN0.05x1d

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$5.215.21 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x1d

Nova | Exo (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$5.215.21 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.260.26 CSGOBIG_COIN0.05x1d

P250 | Iron Clad (Well-Worn)weapon · milspecda ander$5.215.21 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.140.14 CSGOBIG_COIN0.03x1d

Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · blue$5.215.21 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.830.83 CSGOBIG_COIN0.16x1d

StatTrak™ P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$5.215.21 CSGOBIG_COIN$5.755.75 CSGOBIG_COIN1.10x1d

Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · blue$5.215.21 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.830.83 CSGOBIG_COIN0.16x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$5.21	89.99%	30

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 10.2%covert knife 0.0%knifes 0.0%classified 15.5%Classified 5.0%restricted 7.0%Mythical 1.0%blue 11.0%mil spec 15.0%#8847ff 7.0%#4b69ff 8.0%milspec 8.0%#B0C3D9 12.3%best hit —