Popcorn

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$230.00

230 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.02%

EV $207.04 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

78.74%

22 openings, odds method

Variance

9.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 28

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

19 openings · below min

30 days

22 openings · below min

since tracking started

22 openings · below min

-0.5%103.5%207.5%

Small sample. 22 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	19	39.02%±137.6	—	odds
30d	22	78.74%±127.9	—	odds
All	22	78.74%±127.9	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 1,000	$10.9K 10,899 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 200	$5,800 5,800 CSGOBIG_COIN	14.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 100	$3,988 3,988 CSGOBIG_COIN	19.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 100	$2,159 2,159 CSGOBIG_COIN	10.4%	1	0.2	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 100	$1,250 1,250 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.0%	0	0.2	—
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 71	$1,046 1,046 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.1%	0	0.3	—
★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 50	$392 392 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.8%	0	0.4	—
★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$371 371 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.8%	2	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 16	$293 293 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.8%	0	1.4	0.00×
★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 50	$216 216 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.1%	1	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 10	$147 147 CSGOBIG_COIN	6.8%	1	2.1	0.47×
★ Bowie Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 33	$117 117 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.7%	1	0.7	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	12.0%	$91.07 91.07 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.3%	3	2.6	1.13×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	14.2%	$48.33 48.33 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.3%	2	3.1	0.64×
Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Factory New)weapon · restricted	14.1%	$29.05 29.05 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.0%	5	3.1	1.61×
PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Factory New)weapon · restricted	13.3%	$19.50 19.5 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.3%	2	2.9	0.68×
Sticker \| Complexity Gaming (Gold) \| Antwerp 2022sticker · #EB4B4B	1 in 11	$14.24 14.24 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.6%	2	1.9	1.03×
M4A1-S \| Briefing (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 12	$10.97 10.97 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.5%	2	1.9	1.05×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1068, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$230230 CSGOBIG_COIN$2,1592,159 CSGOBIG_COIN9.39x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Factory New)weapon · restricted$230230 CSGOBIG_COIN$19.5019.5 CSGOBIG_COIN0.08x1d

★ Classic Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert$230230 CSGOBIG_COIN$371371 CSGOBIG_COIN1.61x1d

Galil AR | CAUTION! (Factory New)weapon · restricted$230230 CSGOBIG_COIN$29.0529.05 CSGOBIG_COIN0.13x1d

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$230230 CSGOBIG_COIN$91.0791.07 CSGOBIG_COIN0.40x1d

M4A1-S | Briefing (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$230230 CSGOBIG_COIN$10.9710.97 CSGOBIG_COIN0.05x1d

PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Factory New)weapon · restrictedPropagandapandafromuganda$230230 CSGOBIG_COIN$19.5019.5 CSGOBIG_COIN0.08x1d

★ Classic Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert$230230 CSGOBIG_COIN$371371 CSGOBIG_COIN1.61x3d

M4A1-S | Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$230230 CSGOBIG_COIN$48.3348.33 CSGOBIG_COIN0.21x3d

★ Bowie Knife | Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert$230230 CSGOBIG_COIN$117117 CSGOBIG_COIN0.51x3d

Sticker | Complexity Gaming (Gold) | Antwerp 2022sticker · #EB4B4B$230230 CSGOBIG_COIN$14.2414.24 CSGOBIG_COIN0.06x3d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.02%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$230	90.02%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 27.2%restricted 33.6%covert knife 21.7%#EB4B4B 8.9%mil spec 8.7%best hit $2,159 (9.39x)