Doodle
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$83.55
83.55 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.03%
EV $75.22 from 15 items
Observed RTP, 30d
26.07%
1 openings, odds method
Variance
20.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 16
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 1 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1079, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
USP-S | Overgrowth (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedPhukFace$83.5583.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$21.7821.78 CSGOBIG_COIN0.26x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.03%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $83.55 | 90.03% | 15 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 4.9%remarkable 0.3%classified 0.4%restricted 14.2%gold 0.1%covert knife 0.1%extraordinary 48.3%Ancient 15.6%#8847FF 16.1%best hit —