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A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.69
0.69 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
89.95%
EV $0.62 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
8.24%
16 openings, odds method
Variance
3378.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 10,000
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
100.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 16 openings and 0.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $3,272 3,272 CSGOBIG_COIN | 52.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| ★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire | 1 in 10,000 | $2,320 2,320 CSGOBIG_COIN | 37.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| Sticker | This Is Fine (T)sticker · Rare | 25.0% | $0.09 0.09 CSGOBIG_COIN | 3.6% | 6 | 4.5 | 1.33× |
| Sticker | Surf's Upsticker · #4B69FF | 45.0% | $0.08 0.08 CSGOBIG_COIN | 5.8% | 6 | 8.1 | 0.74× |
| PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9 | 30.0% | $0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN | 0.5% | 6 | 5.4 | 1.11× |
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1104, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9FonteideV2$0.690.69 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$0.690.69 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.95%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.69 | 89.95% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%Rare 25.0%#4B69FF 45.0%#B0C3D9 30.0%best hit —