Sushi
A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$86.55
86.55 CSGOBIG_COIN
Advertised RTP
90.03%
EV $77.92 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
29.14%
4 openings, odds method
Variance
14.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 63
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 4 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1125, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New)weapon · classifiedp0ki.$86.5586.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$10.4510.45 CSGOBIG_COIN0.12x
M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · covert$86.5586.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$56.6056.6 CSGOBIG_COIN0.65x
StatTrak™ P250 | Red Rock (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$86.5586.55 CSGOBIG_COIN$23.3923.39 CSGOBIG_COIN0.27x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.03%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $86.55 | 90.03% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 19.9%gold 0.1%covert knife 0.1%#D32CE6 12.9%#8847FF 14.8%restricted 8.7%classified 10.5%industrial 5.1%#B0C3D9 28.0%best hit —