Krabby

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$68.52

68.52 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

89.98%

EV $61.65 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

525.58%

3 openings, odds method

Variance

1.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

26.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

3 openings · below min

7 days

3 openings · below min

30 days

3 openings · below min

since tracking started

3 openings · below min

89.5%385.8%682.0%

Small sample. 3 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3	525.58%±155.8	—	odds
7d	3	525.58%±155.8	—	odds
30d	3	525.58%±155.8	—	odds
All	3	525.58%±155.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$2,745 2,745 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$1,656 1,656 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.9%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Factory New)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 2,000	$1,564 1,564 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.3%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 667	$1,088 1,088 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.6%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$1,061 1,061 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.7%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$907 907 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.5%	1	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 1,017	$693 693 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,030	$268 268 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.4%	0	0.0	—
Sticker \| 3DMAX (Foil) \| Katowice 2015sticker · Legendary	1 in 12	$149 149 CSGOBIG_COIN	19.9%	1	0.2	—
Sticker \| dAT team (Holo) \| Cologne 2014sticker · #8847FF	17.4%	$97.90 97.9 CSGOBIG_COIN	27.6%	0	0.5	—
Sticker \| NQZ (Gold) \| Rio 2022sticker · #EB4B4B	18.8%	$58.16 58.16 CSGOBIG_COIN	17.8%	0	0.6	—
AWP \| Corticera (Factory New)weapon · classified	14.1%	$34.72 34.72 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.9%	0	0.4	—
Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	40.7%	$23.90 23.9 CSGOBIG_COIN	15.8%	1	1.2	0.82×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1149, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$68.5268.52 CSGOBIG_COIN$907907 CSGOBIG_COIN13.24x21h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | 3DMAX (Foil) | Katowice 2015sticker · Legendary$68.5268.52 CSGOBIG_COIN$149149 CSGOBIG_COIN2.17x21h

★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$68.5268.52 CSGOBIG_COIN$907907 CSGOBIG_COIN13.24x21h

Galil AR | Phoenix Blacklight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$68.5268.52 CSGOBIG_COIN$23.9023.9 CSGOBIG_COIN0.35x21h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%

No data in this window

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$68.52	89.98%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.5%#eb4b4b 0.1%covert knife 0.1%Legendary 8.2%#8847FF 17.4%#EB4B4B 18.8%classified 14.1%restricted 40.7%best hit $907 (13.24x)